Leeds United vs. Aston Villa Odds
| Leeds Odds | +135 |
| Villa Odds | +185 |
| Draw | +240 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-135 / +100) |
| Day | Time | Sunday | 11:30 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | USA Network |
| Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
Leeds United welcomes Aston Villa to Elland Road to close out Sunday's Premier League slate.
When we last saw these sides, they were coming off opposite results. Manager Jesse Marsch's Leeds were boat-raced 5-2 at Brentford while Villa earned a 1-0 result at home against Southampton, ending a three-game winless run.
Last season, Villa dominated the head-to-head meetings between these sides. Just in the most recent meeting, manager Steven Gerrard's side went to Elland Road and won 3-0 almost a month after a thrilling 3-3 draw between these teams at Villa Park.
Leeds Tough At Home
Although it's a small sample, Leeds have dominated at home this season.
In three matches against Wolverhampton Wanderers, Chelsea and Everton, the Peacocks are 2-0-1 (W-L-D) with a +3 big scoring chances differential.
Across its past 15 home matches against non-Big Six opposition, Leeds is 5-3-7 (W-L-D) and has created 1.41 expected goals per 90 minutes in those matches while posting a +0.16 xGDiff per 90 minutes.
However, this is simultaneously a Leeds defense that has come up very lucky — it has allowed two goals on four big chances at home and 10 goals on 14 big chances for the season as a whole.
In those same 15 matches, Leeds has kept only two keep clean sheets and is allowing 1.25 xG per 90 minutes, per fbref.com.
Villa Struggled On Road
Even if you remove its road fixture against Arsenal from consideration, it can't be overstated how bad Villa has played away from home this season.
In two matches against Bournemouth and Crystal Palace, Steven Gerrard's side has managed only a single big scoring chances while allowing six to those sides combined (five to Palace, one to Bournemouth).
This is also a Villa side that has struggled to create much offensively against mid-table sides away from home. Across its past 10 games against sides that finished anywhere but the top-seven or in the relegation zone, Villa has managed only 0.96 expected goals per 90 minutes.
Negative defensive regression could be on the way soon too. So far this season, Villa has conceded 10 goals on 14 big scoring chances, including seven road goals on nine road big scoring chances.
Betting Analysis & Pick
There are so many counter-balancing elements to this handicap that I find myself staying away from any side in this game.
But, what I come back to is the fact Leeds has avoided defeat in 12 of its last 15 at home against non-Big Six sides. Given how much better Leeds has performed offensively compared to Villa in their respective fixture groupings, I see the hosts earning at least a point.
That said, I don't trust this Leeds defense to contain Villa's attack one bit. Entering this game, Villa is fifth in successful pressure percentage, three spots ahead of Leeds in the corresponding defensive metric.
Plus, in those same 15 Leeds games I referenced earlier, both teams have scored in 11.
Given both teams to score is my most confident bet – it's priced at -165 on its own – I'll add that to a single-game parlay and hope the hosts walk away with points.
The Pick: Single-Game Parlay: Leeds Double Chance + Both Teams to Score (+105)
