Leeds United vs. Fulham Odds
| Leeds United Odds | +105 |
| Fulham Odds | +260 |
| Draw | +250 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-146 / +120) |
| Day | Time | Sunday | 9 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | CNBC |
| Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
Leeds United have now failed to win any of their last seven matches under Jesse Marsch. It's been a brutal run of variance for the Peacocks, who have won the expected goal (xG) battle in four of those matches.
Pressure is building on Marsch as the Peacocks find themselves tied on points with teams in the relegation places. Ninth-placed Fulham visits Elland Road on Sunday and it's an excellent get right spot for Marsch's men at home. Most of their poor results have come down to poor finishing variance rather than a bad level of performances.
Look no further than Leeds' 2-0 loss to Leicester City on Thursday, where the Foxes took a two-goal lead in the first 30 minutes despite only attempting one shot in the first half hour.
Fulham took care of business at home against Aston Villa, but regression is still looming for Marco Silva's side and this is an excellent buy-low, sell-high spot.
Leeds United Receiving Miserable Luck
In their winless run of seven matches, Leeds were outplayed clearly in two of them. But in the other five performances, Leeds played even with or outplayed the opponent — like the 2.2-0.5 xG showing against Arsenal. In those five matches, the Peacocks lost to Brighton, tied Everton, lost to Palace, lost to Arsenal and lost to Leicester.
They have produced one goal from the last four matches despite generating chances worth more than five xG. Patrick Bamford is in a brutal finishing slump right now since returning from injury as he has not looked quite right. But, the variance has to swing their way from a finishing point of view at some time.
Fulham have been a disaster against opponents who apply a ton of ball pressure and that will make this road trip to Leeds difficult. No one in the league has a lower PPDA (passes per defensive action) than Leeds and Fulham is 19th in the league in pressing success rate allowed.
Leeds should be able to produce plenty of high turnovers and make it easier to quickly move the ball into the penalty area. The Peacocks are eighth in non-penalty xG for and against, and they back that up with solid ball progression numbers too. Leeds is 11th in box entries and seventh in entries allowed.
Fulham Struggling In Their Own Half
The Cottagers had an impressive 3-0 win at home against Aston Villa. That game had as much to do with Villa imploding, however, as they conceded a penalty, a red card and an own goal all in the second half. There’s still major red flags for Fulham, who sit ninth in the table with a -1 goal difference and a -9 xG difference.
Fulham have also been awarded four penalties, more than any team in the league, and regression is likely coming there as penalties tend to be random and not reliable or predictive as a source of attacking play and goals. They’ve conceded 10 xGA in five away matches and are now facing a Leeds side due for a ton of positive regression.
They are not offering much midfield resistance or showing an ability to keep teams out of their own penalty area. The Cottagers are dead last in big scoring chances allowed and 17th in box entries conceded. Fulham have started to get exposed in their last few matches — conceding a full xG to Bournemouth and more than three to both Newcastle and West Ham. Aston Villa was not able to take advantage of this but scuffled multiple transition opportunities in the match.
The defense is allowing the closest average shot distance in the entire league and is the only team allowing its average shot from within 15 yards.
Betting Analysis & Pick
My projections make Leeds an odds-on favorite and if I look more heavily at recent form, I can make Leeds as high as -130 on the moneyline at home.
Fulham's defense benefitted from Aston Villa's implosion last match but they've gotten torn apart on the road this season and I see nothing to suggest Leeds won't create multiple big scoring chances via high turnovers from their press.
The market is suggesting that these two teams are comparable in true talent, but I think Leeds is clearly the better side.
Back the Peacocks to take all three points at home.
The Pick: Leeds United ML (+100 or better)
