Leeds United vs. Manchester United Odds
Leeds United Odds | +280 |
Manchester United Odds | -115 |
| Draw | +280 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-154 / +126) |
| Both Teams to Score (Yes / No) | (-180 / +140) |
| Odds via FanDuel. Get the latest soccer odds here. | |
For the second time in five days, Leeds United and Manchester United will face off against one another in the Premier League.
The two sides played in Manchester in a makeup match on Wednesday, as United came back from down 2-0 to split the points in a 2-2 draw.
The Red Devils closed as a -210 moneyline favorite on Wednesday at home. Now with home field flipped, Manchester United is a -115 road favorite at Elland Road.
The Peacocks fired American manager Jesse Marsch on Monday and have a team in place to manage the transition period until a new full-time manager is brought in for the future. Leeds still played in classic Marsch style on Wednesday — a midfield turnover in the first minute led to a goal within 10 seconds of possession turning over.
United struggled to grab full control of the midfield due to its injuries and key suspensions, and they'll have a difficult time doing so away from home on Sunday.
The Peacocks were undervalued on Wednesday, and since the market hasn't adjusted and basically just flipped home field in the betting market, Leeds remains undervalued on Sunday in the rematch.
Leeds United
Leeds fired Marsch because sometimes managers get fired when the process is OK but the results aren't coming frequently enough.
The result against Manchester United on Wednesday is a classic example of a team not really playing any differently but coincidentally getting a few bounces to go its way after a manager gets fired.
The Peacocks lost the expected goals battle, 2.1-0.6, but they were defending with a lead from the first minute on so the single game xG certainly has a game-state effect on it in this circumstance.
A team that had struggles finishing chances for the last two months under Marsch had a 20+-yard strike find the corner and then received a fortunate bounce that led to a Manchester United goal.
Leeds fans and the market shouldn't overreact to the performance as a whole. It was fine. I wasn't down on Leeds coming into the match and certainly didn't upgrade them just because they finally got a result to go in their direction on a middling performance.
The goal for the Peacocks is to disrupt opponent possession structures. That was absolutely the case in the first 30 minutes, but United finished the match right at their season average in passing completion percentage.
Despite not having an experienced manager, though, they poked holes in United's build-up play effectively, including targeting Raphael Varane's limited passing range.
Manchester United
Varane completed just 80% of his short passes in the match on Wednesday despite being under relatively little pressure in the match.
Leeds made a conscious decision not to press him and force him to make decisions on the ball. They forced him to misplay five short passes, and he had the third-lowest short pass completion rate of any United player.
Fred also struggled in the match without Casemiro next to him as a shield. This isn't the first time United has looked worse and less in control in midfield after his departure. The same was true in both meetings against Crystal Palace — once when he was subbed out and once when he was sent off.
Leeds are getting a lot of running and pressing from their three-man midfield of Jack Harrison, Weston McKennie, Tyler Adams and Brenden Aaronson off the bench. United does not have the depth because Christian Eriksen and Scott McTominay are out with injury and Casemiro is suspended.
There's one major positive that came from that victory for Manchester United: Jadon Sancho. He completed five passes into the penalty area in 32 minutes, which is absurd production. He could be the missing link and piece to add the needed firepower to United's attack.
It's been too much Marcus Rashford or bust lately. As good as he's been, they need more production, and Sancho's goal and passing progression is a major key. Even still, I don't expect him to start here.
Leeds United vs. Manchester United Pick
Sancho being fit and in form is a significant upgrade to the United team in the medium term, but it doesn't play a huge role if Erik ten Hag is going to start the same XI on Sunday as he did on Wednesday.
Leeds can still disrupt the United midfield, and the Peacocks' frenetic style and uptempo game are more potent in front of the raucous home crowd. The Peacocks remain due for more positive regression when you compare underlying numbers to actual results.
My projections make Manchester United +117 to take all three points in this matchup away from home. I like the spot and the matchup for Leeds with Casemiro out and would bet Leeds to win or draw at -110 or better.
