Leicester City vs. Tottenham Odds
Leicester City Odds | +240 |
Tottenham Odds | +105 |
| Draw | +250 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-140 / +100) |
| Both Teams to Score (Yes/No) | (-140 / +100) |
| Odds via BetMGM. Get the latest soccer odds here. | |
Leicester City will look to avenge their worst defeat of the season when they host a resurgent Tottenham Hotspur on Saturday.
Their 37 goals conceded are the third-most in the Premier League and the most of any side that begins the weekend outside the relegation places. A half-dozen of those came in a 6-2 defeat at Tottenham back on Sept. 17, including a second-half hat trick from Son Heung-min.
That was the fifth win out of Spurs' first seven league games. More recently, the Londoners are on the verge of regaining a place in the top four after consecutive 1-0 league wins away to Fulham and home against Manchester City.
Meanwhile, the Foxes are coming off of a 4-2 win at Aston Villa that snapped a five-match winless run in the league and took the Midlands club up to 14th. Even so, only three points separate Leicester from the relegation zone and 18th-place Everton.
Leicester City Creating More With New Additions
If the group that won at Villa Park felt like a whole different squad from what we've seen in recent weeks, it sort of was.
Winter window acquisitions Tete, Harry Souttar and Victor Bernth Kristiansen all made their first starts. James Maddison also made his return to the XI for the first time since an injury in early November wiped out his World Cup plans.
Maddison and Tete both scored, and striker Kelechi Iheanacho had a goal and two assists in the most productive start from a Leicester center forward in recent memory.
And although Villa helped the Foxes with some sloppy play out of the back, there was nothing fluky about the four-goal total on 2.6 xG created, the most of Leicester's season.
On the other hand, the defensive vulnerability continued for Brendan Rodgers' side, even in victory.
It was Leicester's sixth consecutive match without keeping a clean sheet, with the Foxes allowing multiple goals in five of those. Their 11.6 xG allowed in that stretch suggests those defensive struggles have been well-earned.
Tottenham Thriving With Record-Breaker Kane
The major news from Spurs' 1-0 home victory over defending league champion Manchester City was Harry Kane's record-breaking goal.
The 29-year old Englishman became Spurs' solo all-time leading scorer with his 267th goal for his club across all competitions. That tally on an early transition opportunity also staked him to 200 Premier League goals.
Outside the Kane headlines, it was also a third consecutive clean sheet and the fifth in the last seven matches across all competitions kept by Spurs. This latest one came without manager Antonio Conte, who is expected again to be away from the touchline as he continues his recovery from surgery.
Spurs may have been fortunate Riyad Mahrez's first-half effort stayed out after striking the crossbar, but that was City's best chance, and clearly Spurs are defending much better than an earlier stretch in which they conceded goals in 10 straight matches in all competitions.
There will be a couple obstacles to keeping up that defensive form on Saturday. No. 1 goalkeeper Hugo Lloris will be out several weeks due to an injury he sustained late against City, and center back Cristian Romero will serve a suspension after he was sent off late after picking up a second yellow against City.
Leicester City vs. Tottenham Pick
It can be easy to get carried away by the score of these teams' first meeting. However, the bulk of that damage came late after the match was decided. The teams' combined xG of 4.0 was still on the high side, but at the same time four goals shy of the aggregate total.
And despite challenging for the top four, Spurs are content to play a low block on their travels even in games in which they're favored. That could lead to a much tighter contest if the creative onus here falls on Leicester.
The xG totals for both teams echo this. Teams are combining for just 2.1 xG per match in Leicester's 10 league home games and 2.57 xG in Spurs' 11 away games.
It's true this Foxes roster is stronger now, but Tottenham are unlikely to gift the same kind of chances that Villa did.
Backing a lower total in some form here is probably the best play. My favorite pick is a single-game parlay on Spurs to win and Leicester not to score at +280 odds and an implied 26.3% probability.
That wager has cashed on 8-of-21 occasions between Spurs away matches and Leicester home games.
