Leicester City look for their third straight win when they host Nottingham Forest in an East Midlands derby.
Leicester City have pulled themselves out of the relegation zone by beating both Bournemouth and Southampton in back to back weeks. While the two wins were much needed for the Foxes, the underlying data is really concerning and it seems as if some negative regression is going to hit them soon.
Nottingham Forest notched a clinical 1-0 win over Crystal Palace on Monday to move into the top half of the table. It's the first time Nottingham Forest have been this high in the table since they were promoted to the Premier League and it's not by coincidence. The Trees have been one of the better teams outside of the Big Six since Nuno Espírito Santo took over the club in late 2023.
There is also some familiarity in the opposing dugout for Forest as Steve Cooper, the man who brought them up to the Premier League, is now in charge of Leicester City.
Let's get into my Leicester City vs. Nottingham Forest prediction.
Leicester City vs. Nottingham Forest Odds, Picks, Prediction
| Leicester City Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+0.5 -165 | 2.5 +105o / -145u | +210 |
| Nottingham Forest Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-0.5 +140 | 2.5 +105o / -145u | +140 |
- Leicester City vs. Nottingham Forest moneyline odds: Leicester City +210, Nottingham Forest +140, Draw +225
- Leicester City vs. Nottingham Forest over/under: 2.5 goals (over +105, under -145)
- Leicester City vs. Nottingham Forest pick: Nottingham Forest – Draw no Bet
I am backing the Nottingham Forest draw no bet in Nottingham Forest vs. Leicester City.
Leicester City Preview
Leicester may have won back to back matches, but my goodness they have been a train wreck defensively. They are coming off conceding 2.1 expected goals against Southampton over the weekend. In 11 v 11 situations, Leicester are allowing 2.33 xG per 90 minutes, which is the highest mark in the Premier League. The problem with them is they are trying to stay very compact in the middle and are allowing the opposing wingers to go 1 v 1 against their fullbacks. That is fine, but their fullbacks are horrific defending in those 1 v 1 situations.
Southampton continually got into those situations and beat the fullbacks to send in a cross, which is how they scored both of their goals. Leicester have allowed the second-most crosses into the penalty area of anyone in the Premier League, which is a problem against Nottingham Forest because that is how they create most of their chances. On top of that, Nottingham Forest have great wingers in Anthony Elanga and Callum Hudson-Odoi, who can can consistently beat Leicester’s defenders to send in those crosses.
The reason Leicester are over-performing defensively is because their goalkeeper Mats Hermansen has a +5 post shot xG +/- in only eight matches. He was a +5.7 for the entire season last year in the Championship, so I wouldn’t expect him to continue to over-perform at this high of a rate.
Nottingham Forest Preview
Nottingham Forest are a really good defensive team and it's the reason why they have only lost one match this season. Nottingham Forest are allowing the lowest xG per shot, the lowest percentage of shots inside the penalty area and have allowed the third-lowest amount of expected goals behind only Liverpool and Manchester City. The main reason for that is they are one of the most physical teams sitting in their mid block and they are really difficult to play through. They have the second-highest ground duel win rate in the Premier League, as they don’t let anyone play through the middle.
Not letting teams get numerical advantages in the middle is important, but if you are going to be a passive team you have to make sure you are not allowing teams to get inside your penalty area at a high rate. Nottingham Forest are one of the best teams in the Premier League at doing just that, ranking second in final third to box entry conversion rate allowed.
Nottingham Forest have struggled a bit offensively, but they sure have the pieces to make improvements. Chris Wood has been a really productive striker over the last two seasons, scoring 19 goals and having a 0.57 xG per 90 minute scoring rate. He is a massive threat on crosses so look for him to have a big game.
Leicester City vs. Nottingham Forest Prediction
The spot isn’t great, but Nottingham Forest really shouldn’t be priced as a pick’em against one of the worst teams in the Premier League.
The Leicester offense has been pretty bad for most of the season as well. The Foxes are only averaging 1.07 xG per 90 minutes in 11 v 11 situations and have the second-fewest final third and box entries this season. They’ve created under one expected goal in six of their eight Premier League matches, so I don’t see how they clear one expected goal against one of the best defensive teams in the league.
Not only are Nottingham Forest the better defensive team, but they will have a big advantage on set pieces. The Trees have scored three goals and have the seventh-highest xG per set piece this season, while Leicester have allowed the second-most expected goals off of set pieces.
Nottingham Forest are level above Leicester right now and I think are very undervalued in the match, so I like the value on them.
Leicester City vs. Nottingham Forest Pick: Nottingham Forest – Draw No Bet (-132 via BetRivers)
How to Watch Premier League: Time, Channel, Streaming
| Location: | King Power Stadium, Leicester, England |
| Date: | Friday, October 25 |
| Kickoff Time: | 3 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | USA Network |
