Leicester vs. Southampton Odds
| Leicester Odds | -115 |
| Southampton Odds | +290 |
| Draw | +280 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-165 / +125) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 10 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | USA Network | fuboTV |
| Odds updated as of Saturday morning via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
Leicester City coughed up a two-goal lead at Brentford in its Premier League opener, then conceded four times in a 4-2 defeat at Arsenal to begin the season with just one point.
The host side will be expected to win Saturday when it faces Southampton, which also only secured a point after losing to Tottenham and drawing with Leeds United.
The Saints are down to +150 odds to be relegated as they continue to concede big scoring chances and struggle to find end product in the opposition penalty area despite decent underlying numbers.
Southampton did rescue a point against Leeds, but the same defensive issues remain from season's past and the matchup with a traditional Leicester side that loves to play longer balls in behind would not normally be a good one for the visitor.
That said, the line is showing too much respect to Leicester, which has begun the new season in flux and not shown a good performance to date.
Leicester City
Through 180 minutes of the season, the Foxes are 19th in xG created. This is similar to the beginning of last season when Leicester's attack completely disappeared.
The Foxes relied on excellent chance conversion rates vi big scoring chances to sustain the offense last season and it appears it’s relying on that again. That strategy can work, but it's not going to if the defense continues to concede chances left and right as well.
The Foxes have already conceded from a set piece, allowed 3.0 xGA to Arsenal and Brentford combined and might also have a goalkeeper issue with Danny Ward starting.
I came into the season thinking Leicester was overpriced and the first two games have only helped further confirm my belief that more regression is coming.
By The Numbers
- 19th — Only Bournemouth, which played Manchester City, has created fewer chances through two matches than Leicester.
- 16th — The Foxes allowed the fifth-most box entries into their own penalty area last season.
Southampton
The Saints might have lost to Spurs, but hidden in that defeat was an encouraging statistic. Field tilt — a stat that measures how much of the game is played in each half — was basically even. The Saints then controlled more of the ball in dangerous areas in the match against Leeds as well.
It's clear that Ralph Hassenhüttl knows how to set up his team and put it into positions to be successful. However, in both penalty areas, Southampton lacks the ability to create and deny scoring opportunities.
The defense ranks higher than Leicester's attack in ball progression, box entries and crossing numbers. The Saints are also eighth in shots allowed and the Foxes attack is just 14th in creating them.
The result is Southampton controls the midfield at times and creates more shots, while Leicester relies on the bigger chances to score.
By The Numbers
- 20th — Southampton conceded the most big chances in the EPL last campaign.
- 5th — The Saints scored the fifth-most goals from set plays last season, in large part because of James Ward-Prowse.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Given Leicester relies on moments of quality and execution in the penalty area, while Southampton is better in the middle of the pitch, I don't like the host’s chances an odds-on favorite.
The Foxes also had major set-piece defensive issues last season (second-most goals allowed) and face the best EPL set-piece taker in Ward-Prowse. I'm optimistic Leicester can improve there, but Southampton is a club which could clearly exploit the potential weakness.
My projections make Leicester City a +121 moneyline favorite, thus I will back Southampton getting +0.5 goals via the Asian Handicap at -120 odds or better.
The Pick: Southampton +0.5 (-120 or better)
