Things get back into full swing across the European soccer landscape this weekend for some of the continent's big leagues after the holiday break.
And one of the leagues getting right into the mix is Ligue 1, which returns to the pitch beginning Saturday in France. However, the biggest match on the weekend card comes Sunday when powerhouse Paris Saint-Germain hits the road to take on Lyon in a monster showdown.
Handicapper Avery Zimmerman has uncovered his three best bets on the docket, which includes a play from that highlighted clash in the French top flight. Let's take a look at this favorite plays and see where he's landed.
Ligue 1 Best Bets
Lens vs. Rennes
| Lens Odds | +180 |
| Rennes Odds | +150 |
| Draw | +255 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-115 / -105) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 3 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | beIN Sports |
| Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here. | |
In a battle of Champions League hopefuls, Rennes travels to Lens for an important tie. Both teams are performing well in the French top flight, with each producing in the top four of expected goals and conceding in the bottom five of xGA this season.
There's a good chance one of these squads can make a serious push for the top three, which is why this will be so crucial. Each team is also missing multiple players due to the Africa Cup of Nations event, plus Jeremy Gelin, Deiver Machado, Romain Salin and Birger Meling will all likely be out due to injury in this matchup.
On the road, Rennes' xG differential of 0.47 is fairly close to Lens' home differential (0.75), though Lens most recently played Tuesday and Rennes' last contest came on Sunday. With a touch of added rest, I expect this game that's already on a thin margin to be pushed even closer.
At these odds, the implied probability of 28 percent on the draw seems a bit low considering just how tight this fixture could be, so on the three-way moneyline I feel as though it has the best value.
Pick: Draw (+255)
Brest vs. Nice
| Brest Odds | +195 |
| Nice Odds | +140 |
| Draw | +245 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-115 / -105) |
| Day | Time | Sunday | 7 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | beIN Sports |
| Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here. | |
There's no doubt second-place Nice is fortunate to be in the position it's in, but not everything is about numbers in sports. Nice has done an incredible job of getting bounces to go its way and outperforming its advanced metrics, which has put the club in a Champions League spot midway through the season.
Brest enters the game in 12th place and somewhat desperate for a result having not recorded a league win in more than a month. This is a good chance for the squad to get a win, given its home form compared to Nice's away form.
The coastal town's home Stade Francis Le Ble has created positive situations for the squad, with an xG at home that's 0.21 better per game than Nice's road total. It also has an xGA number 0.37 lower than Nice is conceding on the road.
In the end, the value has to be with the team getting the better price despite having better underlying metrics of form. That's an offer I have to take almost every time.
Pick: Brest — Draw No Bet (+110)
Lyon vs. Paris Saint-Germain
| Lyon Odds | +290 |
| PSG Odds | -115 |
| Draw | +285 |
| Over/Under | 3.5 (+120 / -145) |
| Day | Time | Sunday | 2:45 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | beIN Sports |
| Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here. | |
Paris Saint-Germain's grip on the league is incredibly firm. And looking at the overall advanced metrics of Ligue 1, you could think the Parisians have been quite lucky. However, recent matches don't really reflect that at all.
A draw with Lorient featured a 0.8 xG differential in PSG's favor, while a near 1.5 xGDiff was registered in a draw with Lens. I could keep listing fixtures where this was the case, and yet cannibalism throughout the rest of the table has allowed the club to establish a hefty 13-point edge on Marseille and Nice.
The same can be said for Lyon, who has had its ups and downs in terms of roller coaster affairs. A recent 1-1 draw with Metz, where Lyon had a near 2.5 gap in terms of xG was preceded by a 0-0 draw with Lille in which Lyon had an xG differential of -1.76 in the contest.
However, a trend in all these games is an underperformance on the goals side, as opposed to what could have been expected. Because of this, I don't mind betting over 3.5 goals considering the juice that it's coming with it.
There are going to be a lot of chances in that game. It's just a matter of how many are converted.
Pick: Total Over 3.5 Goals (+120)
