Ligue 1 Betting Odds, Picks, Preview, Predictions: Our 3 Best Bets, Featuring Kylian Mbappé, Lionel Messi & PSG (Feb. 19-20)

After last weekend's thrilling Ligue 1 matches, which included a winner at the death from Paris Saint-Germain star Kylian Mbappé, another big slate of games is upon us in the French top flight.

Eight of 10 games last weekend were kept within a goal, making for some exciting games despite a lack of scoring.

With another 10 games on tap, there are a few fixtures presenting worthwhile betting opportunities, including PSG heading to Nantes and an interesting fixture between Saint-Étienne and Strasbourg.

Ligue 1 Best Bets

Nantes vs. PSG

Week in and week out, I preach the value in fading a PSG side that has out-performed its advanced metrics, and each week it punishes me in cold-blooded fashion.

Last Friday, it was the extra-time winner from Mbappé that stole three points out of a flat performance. The Parisians held the xG edge in the match by a margin of 0.80-0.59, but one of the best attacking tandem's in the world — if not the best — found a moment of magic to put the dagger through the heart of Rennes.

That's what great players do, and that's what Lionel Messi and Mbappe did. They'll have another intriguing test this week in the form of an away trip to Nantes, a mid-table squad with an average attack and an average defense.

Though PSG played a midweek Champions League game, it'll be relatively fresh with only three matches played in eight days. However, that doesn't mean the Parisians will cruise to victory.

I'm again intrigued on the value that can be had with Nantes, despite the consistent result generation that PSG creates. There simply has to be regression for a side that has the best conversion rate in the league and only has a 0.51 xG/game clip away from home.

Nantes boasts a 0.27 xG/game margin at home, so fading PSG once again with major juice will be the route that I choose, and I'll prepare to have my heart ripped out one more time.

Zimmerman's Pick: Nantes +0.5 (+175)

Saint-Étienne vs. Strasbourg

It's not often that the fourth-placed team in the league goes to battle with a side in the relegation zone and the odds are this tight, but this is one of those cases.

Saint-Étienne heads into this fixture having won three league games in a row, and though its win against Angers was derived from nothing and it was a touch fortunate to get by Clermont Foot, there's no questioning that Saint-Étienne's level has risen just in time.

Just a point separates 16th from 20th place in Ligue 1, with every point counting with 14 rounds of games to play on the schedule. Strasbourg is on a win streak of its own, and the Champions League dreamers have a similar need to get a result.

A win would allow Strasbourg to keep pressure on Nice for that third position in the league, while Saint-Étienne could realistically jump up to 16th with a win.

I see a tight tie here, and the odds reflect that, but when considering that Saint-Étienne has risen to become a different team as of late and has a better xG/home differential than Strasbourg on the road, taking the team receiving the better price is a no-brainer.

Zimmerman's Pick: Saint-Étienne — Draw No Bet (+115)

Reims vs. Brest

Out of the three matches on this slate of picks, this is the one with the least relevance to any outcomes to the league on a macro level, but that doesn't mean it won't be a solid fixture.

Reims plays a very compact style which creates low-scoring games a lot of the time. Just two of Reims' past 12 games have had over three goals, but it's a style that has allowed Reims to stay in games when it hasn't played that well.

That'll serve Reims well against a Brest side that has a propensity for creating margins when ahead. In the last three games it has won, Brest has triumphed in each by a margin of two or more. Despite this, Brest's -0.51 xG/game mark on the road is significantly worse than Reims' 0.29 xG/game edge when playing on home soil.

I believe that justifies backing the price on Reims, even if it only provides a marginal advantage against what can be expected.

Zimmerman's Pick: Reims ML (+140)

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