Liverpool vs. Bournemouth Odds
| Liverpool Odds | -850 |
| Bournemouth Odds | +1900 |
| Draw | +900 |
| Over/Under | 3.5 (+100 /-122) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 10 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Peacock Premium |
| Odds updated as of Saturday morning via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
It hasn't been the start to the season that Liverpool anticipated, but the powerhouse has to started making up ground on the Premier League.
For Bournemouth, Saturday's showdown will mark the third consecutive fixture where it has to face one of the best teams in the English top flight. The Cherries opened their season with a win against Aston Villa before falling to Manchester City and Arsenal.
So, where does the value lie in this fixture? Let's take a look:.
Liverpool
After a sluggish start to the campaign which included draws against Fulham and Crystal Palace, things got worse for Jürgen Klopp's men this past Monday.
The Reds threw in one of their worst performances of the past few years, getting thrashed by Manchester United. A 2-1 scoreline didn't necessarily reflect the quality of chances the game possessed, but Liverpool did generate 1.52 expected goals of its own.
Darwin Núñez remains on the sideline following his moment of madness against Crystal Palace that saw him get a red card, plus Liverpool's injury list is lengthy with Ibrahima Konate, Thiago Alcantara and Curtis Jones all likely to miss out, as well as others.
By The Numbers
- 1.48 — Liverpool is conceding nearly 1.5 xGA per game in the league, which is one of the biggest numbers over a three-game span in the past three years for the club. There wasn't one such stretch during the previous season.
- 0.36 — Mohamed Salah, Liverpool's talisman who signed an extension over the summer, is generating just 0.36 xG per 90 minutes, which is a worrying sign. He averaged 0.8 xG/90 in the 2021-22 season.
AFC Bournemouth
The results might look bad, but the level Bournemouth has been playing at will likely be encouraging for manager Scott Parker and company.
After a solid opener against Villa, Bournemouth has conceded seven goals on just 3.4 xGA overall. That type of variance will turn in the club's favor at some point, though an attacking presence needs to come as well. The Cherries have amassed just two goals on 0.92 xG this season.
It isn't easy when you're forced to sit back and defend in the way Bournemouth has, but it'll have some confidence ahead of this fixture against a team that is low on that approach.
By The Numbers
- 15 — Bournemouth has the fewest shots on goal in the EPL through three weeks. Interestingly, its conversion rate of 13.3% is good for seventh in the English top flight.
- 8 — The Cherries are winless in their eight prior games against top-six EPL sides, dating back to 2019. That said, this will be an uphill battle.
Betting Analysis & Pick
While these sides haven't been generating a ton of offense, I believe this is a good spot for the goals to pick up.
Liverpool will be eager to put forth a quality performance, while Bournemouth has likely learned its lesson from sitting back too much in recent weeks against powerful sides.
So, I expect Bournemouth to allow the game to open up a touch more while Liverpool is happy to bomb forward and pressure as it always does.
The Reds have gone over the 3.5 combined total in terms of xG in each of its games, while Bournemouth has stayed under it. For those reasons, I'm expecting these squads to push toward that number.
Liverpool is capable of a defensive slip up as well, so Bournemouth might be able to notch a goal.
The Pick: Total Over 3.5 Goals (+100 or better)
