Liverpool vs Arsenal Odds
| Liverpool Odds | +137 |
| Arsenal Odds | +187 |
| Draw | +260 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -143 / +110 |
Liverpool and Arsenal meet at Anfield for a top of the table clash before Christmas.
The Reds were held to a 0-0 draw with Manchester United in their last Premier League match after taking 34 shots and failing to find the back of the net. They rebounded with a 5-1 beatdown of West Ham in the League Cup, but this will be a much more challenging opponent and one that they haven't faced too many times this season.
Arsenal had one of their best performances of the season, beating Brighton 2-0 in dominant fashion. Outside of a few slip ups, Arsenal have been the best team in the Premier League and deserve to be at the top of table. This will be their most difficult test of the season, as a lot of their big matches have come at home.
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Liverpool
Arsenal’s ability to control this match and tilt the field on Liverpool is concerning for the Reds because they are not a team that is good in rest defense. There has only been one instance this season where Liverpool have played at team at Arsenal’s level in terms of defense and ball control – Manchester City.
In that match, Manchester City were by far the better side, creating 1.8 expected goals, having a 71.2% field tilt and a 91% build up completion percentage. The Liverpool press was non-existent in that match because they had a PPDA of 17.4. So, if they are forced to sit in a defensive block for a majority of the match, I am not sure they are going to be able to keep Arsenal out.
That means Liverpool, who have already shown to be more passive out of possession this season, have a lot of different choices to make on how they defend against Arsenal. They haven’t been a great defense when they’ve had to play good competition because since the start of last season, against the big six, they are allowing 1.40 xG per 90 minutes.
Liverpool want to play in transition, it's where they are at their best and it's their best path to success offensively. However, in the match against Manchester City, they weren't very threatening in the few counterattacking opportunities that they had, as they only created 0.5 xG for the match off of six penalty box shots.
The Reds have put up great offensive numbers largely against bad defenses, but Saturday will be a test to see how truly they truly are offensively.
Arsenal
This is a match where Arsenal’s ability to control matches and build out of the back can really shine. Brighton were marking Arsenal man to man in their build up, which meant center back Lewis Dunk was getting dragged out of his position to create more space for Saka. Additionally, Zinchenko, who had already inverted, would push higher up the pitch centrally, which meant Martinelli had space to come and receive the ball. Essentially, Mikel Arteta wanted to get the ball to his two best offensive players in as much space as possible. It worked well.
Arsenal may not be the best offense from open play, but they are the best set piece team in the Premier League. Their first goal against Brighton to break the deadlock came off a set piece, which was their 10th of the season. Liverpool are 12th in xG per set piece allowed and are overdue to concede a goal off a set piece, as their opponents have created 5.5 expected goals, but they’ve only conceded three times.
Arsenal were basically perfect out of possession against Brighton on Saturday and it really showed in the first half when they held the Seagulls to zero shots. For the match, Arsenal forced 11 high turnovers and had three shots off those high turnovers.
Not only has Arsenal’s press been incredibly effective, but they are also great defending in transition. Liverpool put up close to four expected goals against the Gunners last season, but that was Arsenal without William Saliba. This season, Arsenal are allowing only 0.72 npxG per 90 minutes and have conceded just six big scoring chances in 17 matches. Additionally, Arsenal have been the best transition defense in the Premier League this season, which is huge in this match.
Liverpool vs Arsenal
Prediction
Even though Liverpool's offense is seemingly unstoppable, this really isn't that great of a match for them. If their match earlier this season against Manchester City was any indication, then they are in trouble here at home.
Liverpool don't have many great options out of possession to disrupt Arsenal's build up. If they try to play passive, Arsenal are going to play right through them just like Manchester City did. The flip side is Arsenal are the best out of possession team in the world right now and have been the best defensive team away from home this season, allowing only 6.5 expected goals in eight matches. They also have a +6.7 xGD away from the Emirates, which is second-best in the Premier League.
Arsenal are likely going to hold more possession in this match, which means Liverpool are going to have to be threatening on the counter against the best transition defense in the world, which is not a great scenario for them.
I have Arsenal projected as a road favorite, so I like the value on them draw no bet at plus money.
