Liverpool and Bayer Leverkusen face off Tuesday in the Champions League. Kickoff is set for 3:00 p.m. ET on Paramount+ from Anfield in England.
When the League Phase draw was done for the Champions League, this game quickly became one of the most anticipated fixtures of this stage. That's because, as most are aware, Leverkusen manager Xabi Alonso is making his return to a club and stadium where he spent five seasons of his playing career and won the Champions League. On top of that, he elected to stay in Germany for another season rather than fill the vacancy left by Jurgen Klopp.
Despite having to settle for their "second choice" in Arne Slot, things have worked out well for Liverpool. They've won all three of their Champions League fixtures and are top of the table in the Premier League, having lost just one of their first 10 domestic contests.
Read on for my Liverpool vs. Bayer Leverkusen prediction.
Liverpool vs. Bayer Leverkusen Odds, Picks, Prediction
| Leverkusen Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+0.5 +115 | 2.5 -188o / 150u | +333 |
| Liverpool Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-0.5 -149 | 2.5 -188o / 150u | -150 |
- Liverpool vs. Bayer Leverkusen moneyline odds: Liverpool -150, Draw +320, Bayer Leverkusen +333
- Liverpool vs. Bayer Leverkusen over/under: 2.5 Goals (Over -188, Under +150)
- Liverpool vs. Bayer Leverkusen pick: Match Goals Range: 3-4 (+125, bet365)
I am backing the Match Goals Range: 3-4 in Liverpool vs. Bayer Leverkusen.
Liverpool vs. Bayer Leverkusen League Preview
From a personnel perspective, Leverkusen definitely have the advantage, both in fitness and rest. The German champions faced Stuttgart Friday night — which finished 0-0, but they were the better side — while Liverpool defeated Brighton 2-1 on Saturday afternoon.
The travel from west Germany to north England might cancel out the additional recovery time, but it certainly won't offset the Reds' injury list. Alisson Becker, Harvey Elliott, Diogo Jota and Federico Chiesa all remain out, and fortunately for Slot and co., Ibrahima Konate didn't pick up a serious issue Saturday and should be available Tuesday.
However, even with the absences, Liverpool are still a formidable side. That should always be the case when Mohamed Salah, Trent Alexander-Arnold and Virgil van Dijk make up the core of the team, but it's easier said than done when it comes to platforming elite talents (just look at Real Madrid).
Slot, in his short time at the helm, has succeeded in that regard, mainly by relying on the foundations laid by his predecessor. He's left established intentions in transition relatively untouched, and, for better or worse, made them more structured and methodical in settled play.
The Dutchman's counterpart in this clash is in his second full campaign at his post, and has been presented with the nearly impossible task of outdoing his work last year. Leverkusen have already lost more domestic games this season than they did last, and it's going to be significantly more difficult to reach a European final in the Champions League than in the Europa League.
However, it's not like Alonso's team has just lost everything that made them special. They're still one of the best sides in the world in possession and, if anything, their squad has only gotten better. Aleix Garcia and Martin Terrier were both savvy additions, although other new signings Nordi Mukiele and Jeanuel Belocian will not be fit to feature here.
Tactically, this is going to be a fascinating encounter. Both Chelsea and Arsenal had success breaking down Liverpool's midblock, something Leverkusen are capable of replicating, but they also have flaws in their own defensive structure.
Additionally, the German side has shown a susceptibility to an aggressive man-to-man press, particularly in the Europa League final against Atalanta, where they simply couldn't progress the ball and establish control in the attacking half. On a European night at Anfield, there is definitely a possibility things could get ugly, especially as they don't like playing long in deep build-up situations.
Liverpool vs. Bayer Leverkusen Prediction
Factoring in how well-drilled Leverkusen are with the ball, as well as the game-breaking attacking weapons Liverpool have, there is potential for fireworks here.
But how many?
At +125, I like the value of targeting there to be three-to-four goals in the match. This has the makings of a higher-scoring affair, but not one where both sides have their defenses part like the Red Sea when trying to stop an attack.
Liverpool vs. Bayer Leverkusen pick: Match Goals Range: 3-4 (+125 at bet365)
