Liverpool will try to get back to winning ways at home when Bournemouth visit Anfield on Saturday.
The Reds succumbed to a shock 1-0 league loss to Nottingham Forest in their previous home fixture before bouncing back for a 3-1 victory at AC Milan to open their UEFA Champions League campaign.
Meanwhile, the Cherries visit Anfield following a 1-0 league loss at home to Chelsea and a full week's rest, having already tasted defeat in the League Cup back in August.
Liverpool have won the last three fixtures between these sides and the last five played at home.
Let's get into my Liverpool vs. Bournemouth pick ahead of this Premier League match.
Liverpool vs. Bournemouth Odds, Picks, Prediction
| Liverpool Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-0.5 -370 | 3.5 -105o / -120u | -370 |
| Bournemouth Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+0.5 +280 | 3.5 -105o / -120u | +850 |
- Liverpool vs. Bournemouth moneyline odds: Liverpool -370, Bournemouth +850, Draw +550
- Liverpool vs. Bournemouth over/under: 3.5 goals (over -105, under -120)
- Liverpool vs. Bournemouth pick: Goal bands, 3-4 goals
I am backing a goal band wager in Bournemouth vs. Liverpool.
Liverpool Preview
It's been a stong start for Arne Slot as Liverpool's new manager, even considering the upset defeat to Forest.
The Reds have led opponents in expected goals in all five matches they've played in all competitions and held opponents to 0.6 xG or fewer in all but one of those matches. And save for conceding early to Milan and U.S. National Team winger Christian Pulisic, Slot's men were dominant in their midweek to the San Siro and well deserving of their 3-1 win to open the league phase.
Mo Salah and Luis Diaz are up to their old tricks in Premier League play with three goals each.
Slot has eased winger Federico Chiesa into the fold after he completed a move from Juventus at the summer transfer window deadline. The left winger came on for the final minute plus stoppage time of the San Siro victory. Perhaps he'll be called upon for more minutes on Saturday as Slot begins to think about squad rotation to manage the eight additional games from the UCL league phase.
Bournemouth Preview
The results to begin year two under Andoni Iraola have been perfectly acceptable for the Cherries, but there's definitely the look of a team still sorting out how to replace the production it lost with Dominic Solanke's summer departure.
Even accounting for their stunning 3-2 triumph at Everton two weekends ago — a match in which they trailed 2-0 late — Bournemouth have struggled to make good on the chances it has created and is currently lagging its xG predictions by more than two goals.
And summer signing Evanilson — essentially the man tasked with replacing Solanke — is the biggest culprit, having failed to open his Premier League account despite having 1.9 xG worth of chances.
That said, Bournemouth have tightly contested every match they've played and arguably deserved better both from their home matches so far, a 1-1 draw to Newcastle and 1-0 defeat to Chelsea. And perhaps there's a continuation of a trend we saw at times last year when the Cherries were more comfortable as an away side.
Liverpool vs Bournemouth Prediction
The over/under set at 3.5 goals suggests a strong possibility of an attacking avalanche. But that wasn't really the case with Bournemouth's away matches last season, and it may be even less likely in the wake of Solanke's departure.
While the Cherries did stick with their high-pressing philosophy regardless of opponent, the ceiling on total goals very rarely went over four. Liverpool were more likely to see five or more goals in their games, but not when playing the bottom half of the table at home.
So the value on the total is in the middle rather than the sides. I'm playing a goal bands wager on 3-4 total goals at +130 and an implied 43.5% probability. It cashed in 13 of Bournemouth's 19 away league games last season and six of Liverpool's 10 against the bottom half.
