Liverpool vs Brentford Odds
| Liverpool Odds | -400 |
| Brentford Odds | +1000 |
| Draw | +500 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -300/+240 |
Liverpool looks for back-to-back wins to begin the season when they host Brentford.
Liverpool started out slow in their first match against Ipswich Town, but turned it on in the second half for a deserving 2-0 win. Arne Slot's Liverpool is going to look a lot different than they were under Jurgen Klopp, which could be for the better. This will be their first big test — trying to break down a solid defensive block against a team that has given the Big Six trouble over the years.
Brentford notched a 2-1 win over Crystal Palace to start their season. They were impressive in transition and, most importantly, were incredibly solid at the back, which is has been a staple under Thomas Frank. The Bees are one of the best teams in the Premier League at playing the underdog role and will undoubtedly give Liverpool everything they have on Sunday.
Here is my Liverpool vs Brentford prediction.
Liverpool
Slot’s first match at Liverpool was an interesting one. They were incredibly poor against Ipswich in the first half. Ipswich was going man to man all over the pitch, an incredibly brave thing to do, and made Liverpool play more direct than they wanted. What changed in the second half wasn’t really a massive tactical change, Liverpool just started having more success with their three man combinations and long passes up to Salah and Diaz.
In the first half, Liverpool only completed 42.3% of their long balls, but in the second half that number rose to 63.6%. Liverpool also won 64% of their aerial duels against Ipswich, a large number of those coming in the second half. The problem in this matchup for Slot is Brentford isn't going to play the same way Ipswich did.
Liverpool is going to be more conservative in possession than they were under Klopp. Slot is a big fan of valuing control and utilizing a lot of three man passing combinations, while trying to bait the opponent into pressing them. Brentford isn't going to press them in this match, so we will see just how effective Liverpool is at breaking down the Bees low defensive structure.
Brentford
Brentford is going to sit back in a 5-3-2 or 4-4-2 and force Liverpool to beat them with crosses or play through the middle. Brentford got played through at times by Crystal Palace, who took a lot of chances with medium to long passes from the centerbacks to create transition opportunities, but that was because Brentford was trying to apply more of a midblock. They are going to play a low defensive block at Anfield and are one of the better teams in the Premier League at doing so. What Brentford is also elite at is winning duels. They won 57% of their aerial and ground duels against Crystal Palace, which isn’t much of a surprise because last season they were top six in defensive duel win rate.
Brentford can also exploit a couple of key weaknesses for Liverpool. Brentford is a really quick and dangerous transition team, especially attacking in the wide area. They completed the most crosses of anyone in the Premier League last year, while Liverpool allowed one of the higher percentage of crosses into their penalty area. Most importantly, Brentford is always one of the best set-piece teams in the Premier League. Last season, they were bottom five in xG per set piece and Ipswich’s best chance in the match came off a set piece, so Brentford will have an advantage.
Brentford are also incredibly good at holding a very low amount of possession. Since the beginning of the 2022-23 season, there have been 18 matches in which Brentford has held under 35% possession. They have only lost five of those matches and have a -4.4 xGD.
Liverpool vs Brentford
Prediction
Since the Bees were promoted to the Premier League three years ago, they have consistently given the Big Six a lot of problems. Over the past three seasons, they have the third-best expected goal differential against those big clubs. They are an incredibly dangerous transition team, really good on set pieces and solid at defending in their own final third.
Liverpool looked great against Ipswich Town in the opener, but this is a much more difficult opponent.
I only have Liverpool’s spread projected at -1.35, so I like the value on the Bees +2 at -130.
