Liverpool vs Brentford Odds
| Liverpool Odds | -250 |
| Brentford Odds | +550 |
| Draw | +400 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -225 / +170 |
Liverpool look to end their bad run of form when they host Brentford at Anfield.
They are coming off a 1-1 draw with Luton Town and a 3-2 loss to Toulouse in the Europa League. The Reds had been in fantastic form and are just three points off league leaders Manchester City. They are dealing with some injuries in their midfield, but this is a great opportunity to potentially close the gap if Man City drop points at Chelsea.
The Bees are in red hot form at the moment, winning their last three matches, including a come from behind 3-2 win over West Ham last Saturday. The good run of form has now put Brentford in the top half of the table, where they belong. Brentford are one of the best teams at taking points off the big six, so could we see another giant killing on Sunday?
Here is how I'm betting Liverpool vs Brentford.
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Liverpool
Liverpool's offense has been absolutely cooking, averaging 2.16 xG per 90 minutes. It doesn't look like they are slowing down anytime soon. However, how Liverpool have been scoring their goals is pretty important.
They just played two teams that play similar formations to that of Brentford in Nottingham Forest and Luton Town. However, if you go back through how they scored their combined four goals against those two teams, all of them were either in transition or guys making runs off of the back line.
Brentford's rest defense and transition defense is not going to allow Liverpool to beat them where they are at their best – playing in transition. We haven't really seen a team be successful at sitting in a low block and daring Liverpool to break them down. Luton Town did it for stretches, but they are one of the worst defensive teams in the Premier League. They are certainly nowhere near as compact as Brentford. So, it will be interesting to see if Liverpool have the same struggles that Chelsea had against Brentford, which is just a lot of low quality shots.
The reason Liverpool have improved so much is the introduction of Ryan Gravenberch into the starting XI. Gravenberch is really the dream No. 8 for Liverpool's 4-3-3. His ability to be a ball stopper for transition attacks and his ability to attack the box has been incredible revelation for Jurgen Klopp. Having him with Trent Alexander-Arnold inverting into the middle of the pitch allows Liverpool to overload the last line of defense and create a boatload of chances inside the box. Unfortunately, he's doubtful to play in this match. Additionally, Curtis Jones and Alexis Mac Allister are going to miss this match, which means Liverpool have very little ball stopping in the middle of the pitch to stop a really good transition team.
So, if Liverpool decide to invert Trent Alexander Arnold into the midfield when they are in possession, that is going to leave a lot of space out wide for transition opportunities for Mbuemo and Wissa to exploit Liverpool’s back three, who is also without Andy Robertson.
Dønnum picks Tsimikas's pocket to put Toulouse ahead against Liverpool. 💥 pic.twitter.com/G8vXTojMBI
— CBS Sports Golazo ⚽️ (@CBSSportsGolazo) November 9, 2023
Brentford
Brentford’s ability to play a 5-3-2 out of possession and keep teams from playing through the middle is better than almost any team in the Premier League, and their match at Stamford Bridge against Chelsea is a perfect example of that. Yes, Chelsea ended up creating almost 2 xG in that match, but before Brentford scored it was a bunch of low quality chances that didn’t really threaten the Brentford goal.
Some would label Brentford's rest defense as passive, but it's much different than that. Yes, they will allow teams to circulate the ball around their central block, but Brentford are very active in their low block. The Bees are seventh in both PPDA and opponent build up completion percentage allowed, which has translated to them being top 10 in xGA.
They are so good offensively because of their ability to attack the wide areas of the pitch. When the Bees recover the ball in their own final third, they look to make quick attacking transitions by sending long balls out wide with the wingbacks. That’s important because Liverpool have had difficulties defending crosses this season, ranking 10th in crosses completed into their penalty area. Brentford mainly create a lot of the chances via crosses and in transition, and that is where the Bees can exploit Liverpool, because Liverpool are going to be extremely limited in this match.
Brentford also love to utilize long balls when they win the ball in their own final third. The Bees are attempting 74.5 long balls per 90 minutes, which is fourth-most in the Premier League. The return on that is pretty impressive as Brentford are averaging 1.74 xG per 90 minutes and have created 10 big scoring chances, both of which are top 10 in the Premier League.
Liverpool vs Brentford
Prediction
These are the types of matches to back Brentford. Since the start of the 2022-23 season, the Bees have taken a whopping 25 points off the 'Big Six' clubs in England, which is by far the highest mark of any non-Big Six club.
The reasons why they are so good play perfectly into a matchup like this versus Liverpool, where Brentford are not going to hold a large share of the possession and be great in transition against a bad transition defense. Maybe the craziest stat of all for Brentford is they haven't lost a match in which they have held under 35% possession.
Brentford are also going to have major advantages on set pieces because the Bees have created 6.1 xG off of them this season, which is the most in the Premier League, but they’ve only scored twice. Liverpool struggle defending set pieces, ranking 12th in xG per set piece.
I only have Liverpool's spread projected at -0.94, so I like the value on Brentford +1.5 at -135.
