Chelsea vs. Liverpool Odds
| Chelsea Odds | +400 |
| Liverpool Odds | -167 |
| Draw | +333 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -225 / +170 |
Liverpool and Chelsea meet for a massive clash on Wednesday at Anfield.
Liverpool fans were delivered the shocking news last week that their longtime manager Jurgen Klopp is going to step down at the end of the season. With Liverpool being at the top of the table, it makes the second half of the season very intriguing to see if it can hold off Manchester City and Arsenal. It starts though with three points against Chelsea.
The Blues have been up and down in terms of their form. They put six goals past Middlesbrough in the League Cup and then backed that up with a snoozy 0-0 draw with Aston Villa in the FA Cup. The underlying numbers have been really good this year for Chelsea, which is starting to solve some of its tactical issues, so the Blues should be able to give Liverpool some problems.
Read on for my Liverpool vs Chelsea prediction.
Liverpool
Liverpool have been a fascinating team to watch this season because it doesn't play like the other teams near the top of the table. Teams like Manchester City and Arsenal value game control to win, but Liverpool actually doesn't even try to control matches at all, they'd rather it be back and forth and mainly played in transition.
The problem that Liverpool have had early on in this season defensively is their press wasn't as effective as years past, so Klopp is forced to play more passive out of possession because they didn't have a true ball stopper in the middle of the pitch. Things have changed for Liverpool because their counter-press is back to working really effectively, as they have the best PPDA in the Premier League since the beginning of November.
Bayer Leverkusen is one of the best counter-pressing teams in Europe. Their ability to swiftly regain possession high up the pitch immediately after losing it is notable, enabling them to maintain relentless pressure on opponents (1/2) pic.twitter.com/uQu8KZNtic
— markstats (@markrstats) January 27, 2024
One big part of that great counter-press has been Wataru Endō. He is off representing Japan in the Asian Cup, which is a loss for Liverpool because during their resurgence, his ball-winning and pressing in the middle of the pitch has been so crucial to the Reds out of possession.
Another big loss in this match for Liverpool is going to be Mo Salah. Salah has been in the best form he's ever been since he arrived at Liverpool. He's currently is at a 0.93 npxG + xA per 90 minutes, third-best in the Premier League behind only Erling Haaland and Darwin Núñez. So, even though Liverpool have a talented front three, he will be a miss.
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Chelsea
Things are starting to trend in the right direction for Chelsea and their performances against some of the better teams in the Premier League have shown that they have the potential to be back up near the top of the table.
So far this season, they have drawn with Liverpool, Arsenal, Manchester City and beaten Brighton and Tottenham. The reason for that is because they are quite frankly a lot better playing without the ball in transition than what happens when they play as favorites.
When they are the favorites, teams will sit in a low block and dare Chelsea to break them down. Because Chelsea are lacking a true striker at the moment, they've really struggled to finish off a lot of the chances their create. However, when they are able to unleash their high press and force turnovers, they've look a lot better. Chelsea are a really good pressing team. They rank third in PPDA and second in high turnovers this season and can cause a lot of problems for Liverpool.
The biggest problem that Chelsea have had is their build up structure. For the longest time they were incorrectly utilizing Enzo Fernandez. Fernandez is an elite deep lying playmaker that should aid in build up, and he is an elite ball progressor to get the ball into the final third. For most of the season, however, he was used in an advanced role trying to be more of a goal scoring option, which is not his strong suit. If he starts being utilized correctly and especially in this match when Chelsea are going to have to make a lot of long passes over the top of Liverpool's press and in behind their high line, then the Blues will be able to create some chances.
The Chelsea offense has been on fire since the start of the new year. They've created the most expected goals of anyone in the Premier League during that time frame because of their high pressing and their ability to take advantage of transition opportunities.
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Liverpool vs Chelsea
Prediction
With Liverpool sitting at the top of the table and currently being in a really good run of form that market is naturally going to overvalue them, even though they are going to be without two key players.
Chelsea have played much better against the rest of the big six because the reality is that they are better playing on the break, and given Liverpool's style of play, this match should be end to end with a lot of chances.
Chelsea are going to have a big advantage on set pieces being No. 1 in the Premier League in xG per set piece, while Liverpool are 17th in that category defensively.
I only have Liverpool projected at -118, so I like the value on Chelsea +1 at -106.
