Liverpool look to remain atop the Premier League table when they host Chelsea in the biggest match of the weekend in the Premier League.
Arne Slot's side has been amazing to begin their season, winning 6-of-7 matches in the Premier League. While that is impressive, they have not beaten a team that finished inside the top seven last year, so this will be their first big test.
Chelsea have been equally impressive under Enzo Maresca as of late, winning five of their last six matches before the international break. The Blues are on the ascension up the table, but they have yet to beat an elite team, so it would be massive for them to get a result at Anfield.
Let's dive into my Liverpool vs. Chelsea prediction.
Liverpool vs. Chelsea Odds, Picks, Prediction
| Liverpool Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+0.5 +100 | 3.5 +108/ -130u | -165 |
| Chelsea Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-0.5 -125 | 3.5 +108o / -130u | +400 |
- Liverpool vs. Chelsea moneyline odds: Liverpool -165, Chelsea +400, Draw +340
- Liverpool vs. Chelsea over/under: 3.5 goals (over +108, under -130)
- Liverpool vs. Chelsea pick: Under 3.5
I am backing the Under 3.5 in Chelsea vs. Liverpool.
Liverpool Preview
We are coming off an international break and the last time Liverpool were in this situation they played Nottingham Forest and not only suffered their lone loss of the season, but it was the first time they created under one expected goal in a match under Slot. Nottingham Forest sat in a 4-2-4 low block and did not allow Liverpool to play through the middle. More importantly they didn’t let Liverpool get into transition opportunities. That is where Liverpool are most dangerous and it’s how they’ve created most of their big scoring chances this season.
Under Slot, Liverpool will sit in a 4-2-4 mid block and try to force turnovers from that mid block while relying on pressing triggers on when to press opponents high up the pitch. They’ve been so good at stopping teams progressing through the middle of the pitch with fantastic ball winning, which was missing for most of last season under Klopp. Another thing that the front line has done a good job of is angling themselves to not allow easy outlet balls to the fullbacks, which is something Chelsea do with regularity when they build out of their deep 4-2 shape.
One of the best aspects under Arne Slot is Liverpool’s transition defense. When they lose the ball they are always making sure the opponent doesn’t have a numerical advantage on the break and it also helps that they have two of the best center backs in Van Dijk and Konate, who can both cover a lot of ground and are elite at winning ground duels.
By the numbers Liverpool have been the best defensive team in the Premier League through seven matches. They have only conceded two goals and are allowing 0.73 npxG per 90 minutes. It’s no fluke because they are allowing the lowest amount of box entries and the lowest xThreat as well.
Chelsea Preview
Uunder Enzo Maresca, Chelsea sure are interesting, but I am not sure if his tactics are going to work against elite teams. Sure, against teams like West Ham and Brighton Chelsea can put up big numbers, but their last match against Nottingham Forest was a struggle.
What Maresca wants Chelsea to do in possession is build out in a 4-2-2-3 with the goalkeeper coming out and acting as a second center back to get them a numerical advantage in the first phase. Once they progress the ball up the pitch it morphs into a 3-2-5 with the aim of creating a five man overload in the middle. Cole Palmer and Enzo Fernandez will play in between the two defensive lines, dropping into the half space, where they have done a lot of damage.
However, against Nottingham Forest they weren’t given the room to operate, so because of that Chelsea had 1 v 1 situations out wide and they kept funneling the ball to Madueke, who ended up taking seven shots for the match. That generally meant that most of their chances were of low quality. In the end they created 2.3 expected goals against Nottingham Forest, but half of that came after the 78th minute when James Ward-Prowse got a red card.
Defensively, Chelsea aren't pressing as aggressively as expected lately. Rather, Maresca is preferring more of a 4-2-3-1 mid block. He does want his team to squeeze the pitch and play a high defensive line, which does leave them exposed in behind. So far though it’s been successful because Chelsea are only allowing 1.0 npxG per 90 minutes and have only conceded two big scoring chances on the season.
Liverpool vs. Chelsea Prediction
What will be interesting is who has more control in this match? Liverpool have yet to play a match where they hold under 50% possession and Chelsea really have only had one match (their first one against Manchester City) where they weren’t in complete control. I highly doubt we are going to see either side sit deep and try to play in transition for the entire match, which means both are going to try to build out of the back using three man combinations to play through each other's mid block, which creates a slow-paced match.
Liverpool have been so good defensively this season, but their ability to control matches from even game states and when playing with a lead is what has been most impressive. From an even game state, Liverpool are only allowing 0.43 xG per 90 minutes and when playing with a one goal lead they are only allowing 0.81 xG per 90 minutes.
Arne Slot’s Liverpool are playing much more low-event matches than they were under Klopp because he values control and a solid defensive structure. There hasn’t been a single Premier League match that has featured more than 3.1 expected goals and every single one of Liverpool’s matches so far have gone under the opening total.
I only have 3.06 goals projected for this match, so I like the value on the under.
