League-leaders Liverpool make the short trip to play their fierce rivals Everton this Saturday morning.
The Merseyside derby is one of English soccer's longest-standing rivalries. This will be the last time the game is played at Goodison Park, Everton's home for the last 130 years.
Liverpool are coming off a 3-3 draw and retain a 7-point lead at the top of the Premier League standings.
Everton remarkably won 4-0 against the 19th-place Wolves midweek. This game allows Everton to be five points clear of the relegation zone and enter this dreaded matchup with a confidence boost.
Here is my Liverpool vs. Everton prediction and Premier League odds for tonight's match.
Liverpool vs. Everton Prediction, Pick, Odds
| Liverpool Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +130 | 2.5 -138o / 110u | -209 |
| Everton Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -167 | 2.5 -138o / 110u | +525 |
- Liverpool vs. Everton moneyline odds: Liverpool -209, Draw +350, Everton +525
- Liverpool vs. Everton over/under: 2.5 Goals (Over -138, Under +110)
- Liverpool vs. Everton pick: Liverpool to win and Over 2.5 goals
I am backing Liverpool to Win and Over 2.5 Goals in the Liverpool vs. Everton match.
Liverpool Prediction
Liverpool enters the final Merseyside Derby at Goodison Park as heavy favorites, boasting an incredible run of form that includes an eight-game winning streak prior to their 3-3 draw at Newcastle. That match highlighted both their attacking brilliance and defensive vulnerabilities. Despite an early 1-0 deficit and another slip to 2-1, Liverpool rallied with second-half dominance, capped by Mo Salah’s decisive 83rd-minute goal.
Liverpool’s defensive issues stem from injuries, with Alisson, Konaté and Tsimikas unavailable. Stand-in keeper Caoimhín Kelleher had a shaky outing against Newcastle, misjudging a cross that led to Fabian Schär’s goal. However, the return of Trent Alexander-Arnold to the starting lineup should bolster Liverpool's creativity and defensive solidity. Against Newcastle, Trent provided two assists in a second-half masterclass and is set to play a pivotal role in this derby.
Offensively, Liverpool remains unstoppable. They’ve scored the second-most goals in the Premier League this season, with a league-best 11.6 xG conceded defensively. Salah has been the linchpin in their attack, contributing goals or assists in nearly every critical match. His chemistry with Curtis Jones and Trent Alexander-Arnold was on full display against Newcastle, with intricate team play creating goals from deep recoveries and quick transitions—classic hallmarks of Liverpool under Arne Slot.
Liverpool’s dominance extends to this rivalry, having lost just two of the last 30 head-to-head meetings. They’ve also won five of their last six away league matches at Goodison, emphasizing their stronghold in this historic fixture.
Everton Prediction
Everton’s 4-0 win over Wolves last weekend seemed impressive on paper, but the performance underscores a troubling reliance on set pieces. Two of their goals came from Wolves's own goals off set plays, while the other two were expertly executed free-kicks and corners. Set pieces have accounted for an astonishing 57.1% of Everton’s goals this season—by far the highest proportion in the league—and all four goals against Wolves came via this route. While this strength is undeniable, it also highlights their lack of creativity in open play.
Before that emphatic win, Everton failed to score in four straight matches, a dismal stretch that explains their precarious position in 15th place, just five points clear of the relegation zone. Dominic Calvert-Lewin, their primary striker, has struggled mightily, underperforming his xG by a league-worst -2.4. This inability to convert chances consistently adds pressure to their over-reliance on set pieces, which might not be enough against Liverpool’s resolute defense.
Historically, Everton has been poor against league leaders, winning just one of their last 26 such matches (D7, L18). Manager Sean Dyche faces an uphill battle, especially with a brutal run of fixtures ahead that includes Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester City. While Everton has lost six consecutive games in the 6:30 AM Saturday timeslot, Liverpool has been unbeaten in all eight matches they’ve played at this time in the Premier League.
Liverpool vs. Everton Prediction
This Merseyside Derby carries historic weight as the last one ever at Goodison Park, capping 130 years of storied battles. Everton, desperate for momentum after a poor season, will aim to make it two consecutive derby wins—a feat they haven’t achieved since the 1984-85 season. Liverpool, however, has dominated this rivalry, losing just twice in their last 30 meetings, and enters this game with their eyes firmly on the title race.
The Toffees’ reliance on set pieces could pose a threat to Liverpool’s injury-hit backline, but the Reds’ attacking firepower and tactical versatility should give them the edge. Liverpool’s ability to score from quick transitions, led by Mo Salah, Luis Diaz and Trent Alexander-Arnold, contrasts sharply with Everton’s limited creativity in open play. While the derby atmosphere might keep things competitive early, Liverpool’s quality across the pitch is likely to overwhelm their rivals.
Liverpool’s offensive dynamism and Everton’s tendency to concede in bunches—having allowed three or more goals in five matches this season—make this a solid bet. Expect the Reds to exploit Everton’s weaknesses in open play while trying to contain their set-piece threats, securing a high-scoring victory in the final Goodison chapter of this iconic rivalry.
Liverpool vs. Everton Pick: Liverpool to Win and Over 2.5 Goals (+110 on FanDuel)
