Liverpool vs Fulham Odds
| Liverpool Odds | -250 |
| Fulham Odds | +600 |
| Draw | +400 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -175 / +135 |
Let's dive into the Liverpool vs. Fulham odds and make a pick for Wednesday's Carabao Cup matchup.
The first leg of the Carabao Cup semifinal between Liverpool and Fulham takes place at Anfield on Wednesday as the Reds are heavily favored to advance to the Carabao Cup final across the two legs. Liverpool will be without some key players and that has caused the market to move toward Fulham.
The Reds comfortably handled West Ham, 5-1, in the cup quarterfinal just before Christmas, while Fulham squeaked by Everton in a lengthy penalty shootout. The Reds have entered a period where they'll be playing without Mohamed Salah and Wataru Endo due to international duty at the African Cup of Nations and Asian Cup. Given the recent injury to Trent Alexander-Arnold, the main two vehicles of the Reds attack will miss this match.
Given Fulham's general malaise at creating chances as well, this game should be much lower event than the 4-3 league thriller these two clubs played at Anfield in December.
Here is how I'm betting Liverpool vs Fulham.
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Liverpool
Liverpool broke the Premier League record for expected goals created in the 4-2 win against Newcastle on New Year's Day, and the Reds have created five more xG than any other attack in the league to this point. Even not counting the two penalties, Liverpool created 5.3 non-penalty in the win and completely decimated the Magpies in transition and in rest possession attacks.
That game will go a long way toward making people ignore that the Reds operating was not operating close to its best prior to that game. The lack of high quality chances created against Manchester United and Arsenal cost them points in the league. The poor form of Cody Gakpo, Luis Diaz and Darwin Nunez was noticeable when watching the Reds play.
Liverpool went on the road and won at Arsenal without Salah in the FA Cup this weekend, but the attack generated basically nothing for the first 75 minutes of the match. Now that Alexander-Arnold is out, the Reds will be without their two best creators. Salah averages 0.44 xA per match and Alexander-Arnold averages 0.31 per 90. Alexander-Arnold has 40 more passes into the final third than any other Liverpool player and Salah + Alexander-Arnold are by far the two leaders in passes into the penalty area.
You'd expect Dominik Szoboszlai to fill the gap in production there with his quality passing range, but he's also been ruled out for this match.
It's essentially a cluster absence for the Reds even though they don't play the same position. The market moved toward Fulham and the under with the news of his absence, but not enough. With Liverpool rotating in the FA Cup last weekend and not playing in the league this weekend, I expect Jurgen Klopp to play his best defenders otherwise.
Fulham
Liverpool aren't the only team missing players to injury or AFCON. The Cottagers will be without both center back Calvin Bassey and central midfield Alex Iwobi due to the international competition. Fulham get an underrated amount of shot production and goal output from Iwobi and his loss is a considerable one for a Fulham team that doesn't generate a ton of shots from the striker position.
Raul Jimenez is back from his suspension now and he was instrumental in the Cottagers' 2-1 upset win against Arsenal just at the end of the festive fixtures. The Cottagers were extremely effective on set pieces and efficient in possession to turn 39% possession and nine shots into three goals. Fulham benefitted from facing backup Liverpool goalkeeper Caoimhin Kelleher instead of Alisson. The Cottagers scored three goals on just 1.2 xG in part because Kelleher failed to stop a few shots that he should have.
Fulham's aggressive defensive approach out of possession did an excellent job of denying Liverpool easy access to the penalty area. Antonee Robinson was especially elite in that game shutting down the flank featuring Salah and Alexander-Arnold.
The Cottagers conceded a couple incredible long range strikes to Alexander-Arnold and Alexis Mac Allister in that fixture, which sent it into chaos. Facing Liverpool's best defensive back line, Fulham will have real challenges creating big scoring chances given their attacking limitations.
Fulham are bottom five in xG and xT and Liverpool is elite at stopping crosses, a major avenue of how Fulham like to attack.
Liverpool vs Fulham
Prediction
Liverpool aren't close to the best attacking outfit in the Premier League without Salah, Szoboszlai and Alexander-Arnold. Without the primary creators, Liverpool should play out a more low event match and be hard pressed to easily enter the Fulham penalty area against a Cottagers defense that is quite good at preventing ball progression into the box often.
The market has come down but is still too high on the total. I'd bet under 3 at -110 or better.
