Liverpool vs Fulham Odds
| Liverpool Odds | -400 |
| Fulham Odds | +800 |
| Draw | +600 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -250 / +200 |
Trent Alexander-Arnold's second half strike from outside the penalty area propelled Liverpool to a 1-1 tie with Manchester City and left the Reds within two points of the Premier League lead after 13 matches. The Reds did suffer a key injury blow in the match as top goalkeeper Alisson will now miss time, including this home match on Sunday against Fulham.
Liverpool cruised to a 4-0 Europa League win against LASK Linz at home and will remain on Merseyside for the weekend as a big home favorite. Fulham beat Wolves at home on Monday night with a stoppage time penalty, but they've really struggled this season when punching up against the top sides in the EPL.
Their lack of attacking quality and a true striker has left them toothless when trying to defend for 90 minutes against the big six and other top contenders. The market has moved against Liverpool early in the week because of injury news, but any price under -2 on the spread is too short for the Reds.
Let's dive into my Liverpool vs Fulham prediction.
Liverpool
Liverpool's home record this season is as impressive as any in the Premier League. They've had to play away to most of their top opponents — Chelsea, Spurs, Manchester City and Newcastle — so that has certainly skewed the data a bit. In six matches at Anfield, the Reds have 17 goals for, two against and a +10.4 xG differential.
When they've played opponents of a similar caliber to Fulham, the Reds comfortably swatted away Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest by 3-1 and 3-0 score lines. Only once have the Reds conceded more than one expected goal at home, and it came against Brentford in their last home match with a makeshift midfield due to injuries and suspensions.
Liverpool won't have Alisson and backup Caoimhin Kelleher has rarely featured as his deputy. Kelleher did keep a clean sheet on Thursday despite 0.8 xG conceded to LASK, but he also conceded four goals with -1.1 post-shot expected goal differential in his lone PL start last year. The Reds do greatly benefit in defense with their high line by getting to rely on Alisson's supreme 1v1 goalkeeper skills.
The problem for Fulham in this matchup is that they don't really have a pace threat in behind or a runner to take advantage of Liverpool's potential weakness there.
Fulham
Fulham managed 10 open play shots in the dramatic win against Wolves. Four of them came from midfielder Alex Iwobi and three from defensive midfielder Tom Cairney. Raul Jimenez played 75 minutes and attempted one shot. Carlos Vinicius came on for him as a sub and didn't get any in the final 15. Willian scored twice from the spot but otherwise factored little into this attack.
The Cottagers finished the match with 2.9 xG, but two penalties and a tap-in were pretty much the entire attack. When Fulham are able to keep final third possession and get the midfield forward to join the attack, they have enough to produce decent output overall. When they can't keep game control and tilt the field, the attack suffers.
When you're playing a team like Liverpool, you need to be able to strike quickly and expose them in defensive transition with high quality attacking play. Fulham's strength in attack comes from the numbers and the Marco Silva patterns. It's a major reason the Cottagers have struggled to play up.
At Spurs, at Brighton, home Chelsea, at Villa – all matches that Fulham couldn't reach one expected goal. None of those defenses are particularly elite and yet Fulham struggled. They did score twice against Arsenal, but it came on almost no expected goals and the second goal came down a man on a set piece.
Liverpool vs Fulham
Prediction
Liverpool's ability to excel in transition makes them such a dominant home favorite. Once the Reds get the breakthrough goal and the opponent has to take more risks, it only opens the door for Liverpool to continue to add more goals. They'll probably give up a chance or two to Fulham, but it's hard to see why the market isn't at a full Liverpool -2 in this match.
I'd bet the Reds -1.5 at -140 or better, and expect Liverpool to put up another routine multiple goal win at home.
