Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest Odds
| Liverpool Odds | -450 |
| Nottingham Forest Odds | +1100 |
| Draw | +550 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -225 / +175 |
Liverpool look to make it four straight wins to open their Premier League campaign when they host Nottingham Forest at Anfield.
The Reds have been the most impressive team so far this Premier League season as the Arne Slot appointment looks to be a slam dunk for Liverpool. They hammered Manchester United 3-0 at Old Trafford before the international break to be tied with Manchester City at the top of the table. They have an important Champions League match in Italy on Tuesday against AC Milan, so this is a very tricky spot for them against a good defensive team.
Nottingham Forest have had pretty good start to their Premier League season, picking up five points from their first three matches against Bournemouth, Southampton and Wolves. The Trees were one of the more underrated teams in the Premier League last year and have Liverpool a lot of trouble when they came to the City Ground. They also will be the best defensive team that Liverpool have seen so far this season.
Let's dive into Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest.
Liverpool
Liverpool look a lot different under Arne Slot, but it’s for the better.
What Arne Slot wants more than anything is control and Liverpool are doing that better than anyone right now.
What has been so much better from Liverpool now as opposed to under Klopp is their ability to defend in transition. When Liverpool don’t have the ball they are pressing out of a 4-2-4, which is different from the 4-3-3 under Klopp. The front four are able to press to force teams into long balls with the two holding midfielders able to not allow teams to play through the middle covering the two holding midfielders. If you force teams into long balls up the pitch van Dijk and Konate are two of the best aerial duel winners in the Premier League.
The other big thing is when Liverpool lose the ball they aren’t counter-pressing with reckless abandon. They are always making sure they don’t get overloaded in transition and have at least five guys back to stop the opposing counterattack.
Their match against Brentford is a good example of what this match is going to look like. They beat Brentford 2-0 and exerted control over the entire match. The Bees were defending incredibly deep because it was their only chance of keeping Liverpool from creating high quality chances, but when they broke out in transition Liverpool always had numbers against them, which made it incredibly difficult to actually be dangerous on the counter.
Nottingham Forest
Nottingham Forest are a similar team Brentford in that they are going to sit in a mid to low defensive block and look to transition from deep. However, they are likely going to have the same issues as the Bees did, as Liverpool are most likely always going to have a numerical advantage.
The Forest defense is much better than Brentford at this current stage, however. Through their first three matches they have allowed the lowest xG per shot in the Premier League and actually have allowed less expected goals than Liverpool have. It’s because they are incredibly effective sitting in their mid-block and denying space through the middle. They also do a fantastic job preventing teams from getting into their penalty area. Last season, they allowed the second-lowest final third to box entry conversion rate in the Premier League, which shows how effective their low block is. That has continued into this season because Forest are allowing the lowest xG per shot through three matches.
Nottingham Forest found it really hard to create chances against Liverpool in both meetings last season, creating a total of 1.4 expected goals in their two meetings, so against a much improved Liverpool defensive structure, I think they are going to struggle even more.
Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest
Prediction
Liverpool have been so much better under Arne Slot, but I think the important point to take away is they are playing slower and with more control than they were under Jurgen Klopp. Not consistently getting beat in transition and being able to consistently control possession and build out of the back with regularity is what Liverpool desperately needed and now they have it.
Arne Slot teams also take some time to feel matches out. When he was at Feyenoord only 39% of their xThreat came in the first half of matches. In addition to that we are coming out of an international break where players have traveled back to England from all over the globe, so there could be some tired legs to open the match.
This total would be correct if it was Jurgen Klopp's Liverpool, but that is not the case. Liverpool have only allowed a total of 2.2 expected goals through three matches, while Nottingham Forest are actually lower at 2.1.
I only have 3.08 goals projected for this match, so I like the value on the under at -125.
