Two of Europe's most storied clubs face off today in the Champions League, with Real Madrid traveling to Anfield for what could be the biggest game of the season so far.
Liverpool are probably the best team in the world right now. They lead the Premier League by 8 points and also top the Champions League table, having won all 4 games. They have passed all their tests, the latest being a 4-0 trashing of Bayer Leverkusen and have looked unstoppable as of late, guided by Mohamed Salah's brilliance.
Real Madrid and winning in the Champions League are synonymous with each other, yet recently, the 14 time champion has struggled and finds themselves in 18th place.
Madrid has already lost twice in this competition, and need to get some points quick if they want to finish in the top 8 and avoid an extra knockout round. The star-studded squad has sometimes struggled since Kylian Mbappé's summer arrival, but recent 3-0 and 4-0 wins in LaLiga suggest they are finding their pace going into this clash.
Here is my Liverpool vs. Real Madrid prediction and Champions League odds for tonight's match.
Liverpool vs. Real Madrid Odds, Picks, Prediction
| Real Madrid Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+0.5 -113 | 2.5 -188o / 150u | +290 |
| Liverpool Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-0.5 +101 | 2.5 -188o / 150u | -120 |
- Liverpool vs. Real Madrid moneyline odds: Liverpool -120, Draw +290, Real Madrid +290
- Liverpool vs. Real Madrid over/under: 2.5 Goals (Over -188, Under 150)
- Liverpool vs. Real Madrid pick: Over 2.5 Goals and Mbappé to score or assist
I am backing Over 2.5 Goals and Mbappé to score or assist in the Liverpool vs. Real Madrid match.
Liverpool Prediction
Liverpool could not have hoped for a better start under Arne Slot. The Dutch manager has had the tough task to follow after Jurgen Klopp and has done so brilliantly so far. Slot’s side has thrived with a balanced 4-3-3/4-2-3-1 setup that emphasizes pressing and possession control, boasting the competition's third-highest expected goals (10.3).
Mohamed Salah has been stellar, contributing to 66.7% of Liverpool's Premier League goals with 10 goals and 6 assists. The Egyptian has carried that form over to the UCL providing at least one assist in his last three games. He is well supported by Luis Diaz, who scored a hat-trick to take down Bayer Leverkusen last match week.
Liverpool boasts a very strong midfield, under the resurgence of Ryan Gravenberch. Slot has played him as the deeper midfielder in his 4-3-3, or in a double pivot next to Alexis MacAllister. Gravenberch has shown all the qualities required to make the position his own. The Dutchman has recovered possession more often in the Champions League than any other central midfielder this season (30 times), while also distributing the ball well, with the highest pass completion rate (93%) of any Liverpool player.
Defensively, Liverpool has also been impressive. With the best defensive record in the Premier League, the Reds have only conceded one goal in the Champions League, in their 3-1 win over AC Milan. While injuries to Alisson and Trent Alexander-Arnold will test Liverpool’s depth, Caoimhin Kelleher has been reliable in goal. Expect Liverpool to press high and look to dominate possession once they regain the ball, aiming to maintain their streak of scoring first, as they’ve done in nine of their last 10 matches.
Real Madrid Prediction
Real Madrid are always expected to perform in the Champions League, which is why their two losses have come as a surprise. The team has lacked cohesion since Mbappe's arrival, but there have been glimpses of the possible link-up play between him, Vinicius Jr and Jude Bellingham. The latter comes into this game in form, having scored in his last two games for Madrid.
Vinicius will be absent from this game, a huge blow for Carlo Ancelotti who has had to deal with multiple injuries to key players already. Since the start of last season, they have won 41 of 57 games across all competitions with the Brazilian appearing (71.9%), but have won 75% of matches (12 of 16) when he’s been absent. With the left wing open, this will give a chance for Mbappé to play in his preferred position on the wing.
Madrid has looked disoriented at times this season. They were outclassed by rivals Barcelona in a 4-0 defeat but have since bounced back with two wins in LaLiga. At times, Madrid has failed to break down their opponents defense, favoring individual efforts rather than cohesive team play. Their sole goal in the 3-1 defeat to AC Milan came from a Vinicius penalty, showing difficulties in creating open-play opportunities. While Madrid has a high number of shot-creating actions, these chances too often don't result in goals, as seen by Madrid underperforming on its expected goals tally (-1.6.)
Defensively, Madrid has allowed too many chances. The 7.1 expected goals against them shows how fragile their defense has been. The team isn't fluid defensively, meaning attackers do not track back enough, leaving the midfield and defense outnumbered. In the game against Barcelona, Madrid midfield was outplayed, affecting their ability to maintain possession and dictate the game's tempo. Tactically, opponents have exploited spaces in Real Madrid's formation, particularly targeting the flanks. Against the in-form Diaz and Salah, Madrid's full backs will need their wingers to track back.
Liverpool vs. Real Madrid Prediction
Liverpool and Real Madrid’s storied rivalry adds another layer to this high-stakes Anfield clash. Liverpool will look to reverse their fortunes against Real Madrid, a team they’ve lost to seven times in European competition, including Champions League finals in 2018 and 2022. Madrid is without Vinicius and Rodrygo for this clash, meaning Mbappé will be expected to carry much of the attacking load. The Frenchman has only scored once in the Champions League so far.
Liverpool's attacking options suggest goals will happen in this game. It seems Salah has made it a mission to remind the Liverpool owners every game they have not renewed his contract yet and what better way to do so than on the biggest stage. Madrid needs to win if they want to stay alive and possibly fight for the top 8. Mbappé and Bellingham will need to step up if Madrid want to compete with the bulldozer that is Liverpool, especially considering the game is at Anfield.
Liverpool vs. Real Madrid Pick: Over 2.5 Goals (-188 on Bet365) and Mbappé to Score or Assist (+125 on FanDuel)
