Liverpool vs West Ham United Odds
| Liverpool Odds | -250 |
| West Ham Odds | +650 |
| Draw | +400 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -225 / +175 |
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Liverpool sleep walked through the opening half at Wolves last weekend following the international break before looking like vintage Jurgen Klopp Liverpool in the second half. The Reds managed a 3-1 victory, but the slow starts have been a common theme for the Reds early this season. They've conceded first half goals in four of their five matches — but the Reds' underlying numbers have taken a step forward from last year overall.
If you schedule adjust the numbers, Liverpool are third-best in expected goal differential per 90 minutes through five matches. They've won four of those five and while the Newcastle victory was quite fortunate based on the run of play, Liverpool's attacking firepower and improved midfield athleticism has raised their level overall.
The Reds welcome surging West Ham to Anfield on Sunday, and the question is whether or not the Hammers defense can hold up under the immense pressure they are sure to be under. The Hammers have beaten Chelsea and Brighton already and did lead against Manchester City last week before falling 3-1 in the end.
Let's get into Liverpool vs West Ham.
Liverpool
Liverpool's defensive metrics remain quite average even after a solid showing against Wolves last week. The Reds conceded next to nothing in the second half and took control of the game, but the defense is still middle of the pack in ball progression, box entries and other key underlying metrics. The Reds will get Virgil van Dijk back in the side from suspension, but they also are due to concede more big scoring chances. Instead of being the supercharged pressing side some expected, Liverpool are ninth in field tilt and 10th in high turnovers forced.
If you let teams into your box as frequently as Liverpool have this season, it's simply not sustainable to be top two in the league in big scoring chances allowed. Nor is it sustainable to be a top five defense, which the Reds are by xGA thus far. The absence of Trent Alexander-Arnold due to injury might actually benefit the defense overall because of his struggles at that end of the pitch, but the market is giving the Reds defense a lot of credit by this line and I think regression looms for that unit.
They've done a considerably better job thus far this season in xGA per set piece allowed, but that will be really put to the test against a team with the size of the Hammers and the delivery quality of James Ward-Prowse.
West Ham
West Ham have one of the most extreme defensive profiles in the entire league thus far. No team has allowed more box entries, crosses into the box or final third entries. From a field tilt perspective, the Hammers rank second to last. West Ham have largely been in favorable game states for big stretches of their matches because they scored early against Chelsea and Brighton and then defended out of possession for the entire match.
The Hammers have shown real improvements in their counterattacking quality with better production from Jarrod Bowen on the break. Bowen had a down year last year after his peak season in 2021-22, and his early season returns look more comparable to that peak season. Michail Antonio's underlying xG and xA numbers continue to trend downward as he reaches an advanced age, but Bowen has posted 2.38 shots per 90 and and a career high 0.56 xG + xA per 90.
David Moyes' side is sitting in sixth with three wins from five matches and the narrative is how tough they've been defensively, but the defense hasn't actually been particularly good. They've conceded 39% more than an average PL defense once you schedule adjust their numbers. Manchester City finally punished them, but the majority of the defensive overperformance comes down to goalkeeper Alphonse Areola saving three extra goals over expected.
That doesn't sound like a lot, but 0.6 goals over expected per match this early in the season is ridiculously unsustainable. As the goalkeeper's shot-stopping regresses, the Hammers will need to be more aggressive sending numbers forward. They have the talent to be good on set pieces and direct counters, two areas where Liverpool remains flawed.
Liverpool vs West Ham
Pick & Prediction
The market is giving more credit to the Reds defense than I am at this point in the season. They haven't conceded a ton of goals overall (four in five matches), but the underlying box entry and ball progression data says that more goals are coming. Even the xGA is 5.9, which means they could have conceded more if not for elite shot stopping from Alisson and good variance.
I'm also not believing much in the Hammers' defensive start. They've looked improved in transition and should be better on set pieces, but the defense is much worse at ball winning and keeping opponents out of the penalty area than it was last year. That's the effect of losing Declan Rice and not bringing in a true replacement for him. Moyes has ridden the hot goalkeeper to three early wins, but this defense has quietly gotten worse when compared to last year.
I'd bet both teams to score yes at -160 or better and would sprinkle on BTTS first half as well.
Pick: Both Teams to Score – Yes (-155 via DraftKings)
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