Luton Town vs Brentford Odds
| Luton Town Odds | +210 |
| Brentford Odds | +115 |
| Draw | +275 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -175 / +137 |
Luton Town host Brentford in a relegation battle with a lot at stake.
Luton Town were ripped to shreds by Manchester City over the weekend, losing 5-1. They are still in the relegation zone. Rob Edwards has had a difficult time trying to manage the Hatters injury crisis and it's only gotten worse heading into this match. They were dominated by Brentford in the previous encounter and we could see a similar story on Saturday.
Brentford finally got a win to distance themselves for the time being from the relegation fight, beating Sheffield United 2-0 over the weekend. The Bees have gone through a historic run of bad luck, which has resulted in a lot of dropped points. This match on Saturday would all but secure their status in the Premier League next season.
Here's how I'm analyzing Luton Town vs Brentford.
Luton Town
It’s bad times for Luton Town because of all of their injuries. Going into the Manchester City match, they had no healthy available center backs. It looks like Mengi might be back and Kobore will return after he couldn’t face his parent club Manchester City, but that is still a massive problem when you are facing a Brentford team that has all of their best attackers available.
Brentford aren’t typically a team that registers a high number of shots because they prioritize creating a high quality chance as opposed to taking whatever chance is available. With that being said, this is a unique scenario. Luton Town with maybe one available center back are going to have to do one of two things. They will have to more passively, which they have done from time to time lately, or play super aggressive and get into a back and forth match with Brentford. The problem with both of those scenarios is that if they play a low defensive block, they are one of the worst teams at playing that structure, which is going to lead to a lot of chances for Brentford.
For Luton Town, without all of their available center backs, I think their best method is play aggressively and get into a back and forth with Brentford. If they sit in a low defensive block, they are just delaying the inevitable. Plus, as sad as it is, one point from this match likely isn’t going to help them in the relegation fight, so they are likely going to have to go for it.
Brentford
Brentford have gone through a historic run of under-performance, but give the players they have available in their attack right now there is no reason why they shouldn't hammer Luton Town here.
Brentford rested Ivan Toney against Sheffield United and they somewhat struggled to create high quality chances against a low block. However, Toney should be back for this match, which means we will likely see Brentford start Toney, Wissa and Mbuemo up top. When Brentford play competition that is below them or they believe they will hold more possession than, Thomas Frank will switch his teams formation from a 3-5-2 to a 4-3-3. When Brentford have played out of a 4-3-3 this season, they've been really successful, putting up a +8.8 xGD in 12 matches.
Having their best three attackers up top is so massive for Brentford because there have only been a handful of instances when all three have been available at the same time. Toney is obviously important due to his finishing prowess, but their most important attacker this season has been Bryan Mbuemo. His pace and finishing ability in transition is so deadly and crucial to Brentford's style of play. So far this season he has a 0.79 xG + xA per 90 minute rate, which is the eighth-best mark in the Premier League.
The flip side of things is that Brentford have actually been a pretty bad team and defending in transition and it all boils down to that they’ve had to play the entire season with backup full backs, which has led to them getting beat out wide time and time again. That is one of the reasons why they’ve allowed the second-most crosses into their penalty area, which is not ideal when you are playing Luton Town who only create chances from open play via crosses from out wide.
Luton Town vs Brentford
Prediction
I really don't think Luton Town have a choice given the situation they are in with the relegation fight and their injury crisis across their back line but to go for it and try to press Brentford's build up to force high turnovers. Sitting back in a low defensive block isn't really going to work or be a sustainable method to getting three points in this match, which is what they need.
Playing a very back and forth type match is risky, but it can exploit Brentford's one fatal flaw, which is defending in transition. They also will have more space out wide to operate in transition if Brentford come out in a 4-3-3 instead of their usual 3-5-2, which will allow Luton Town to do what they do best, which is create chances from open play via crosses.
I have 3.81 goals projected for this match, so I like the value on the over.
