Luton Town vs Brighton Odds
| Luton Town Odds | +333 |
| Brighton Odds | -143 |
| Draw | +333 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -175 / +135 |
Brighton look to maintain their good form when they travel to take on Luton Town.
Luton Town are fighting for their lives to try and get out of the relegation zone. They are one of the least talented teams in the Premier League and quite honestly have over-performed to be sitting where they are right now. They just picked up a huge road win over Everton in the FA Cup on Saturday, so maybe that is the confidence they need to pull off a big upset here over Brighton.
Brighton have gotten an uptick in form over these past few months losing only one of their last 10 matches in all competitions. Roberto De Zerbi is not being linked with all of the open jobs across Europe at the end of the season, but right now his Brighton team has a really good shot at getting into the race for the top four and it start with three points at Kenilworth road on Tuesday.
Check out my Luton Town vs Brighton prediction.
Luton Town
The Luton Town defense is not good enough in a low block to keep Brighton at bay for a full 90 minutes. In their last 12 Premier League matches they have conceded 32.5 expected goals, 20 big scoring chances and have only held two opponents (Burnley and Newcastle) under 1.5 expected goals. The biggest problem for Luton is when they fall behind. Because they have to come out and be more aggressive trying to press high, it often leaves a lot of space in behind the first line of the pressure. When playing from behind this season they are allowing 2.13 xG per 90 minutes.
However, this may actually be a decent matchup for Luton Town offensively. De Zerbi is obsessed with having his team play through the middle of the pitch and often commits a ton of bodies there to try and overload it. Brighton have improved defensively because a lot of teams try to play transitional through the middle. Luton Town want to get the ball into wide areas so they can try and create chances via crosses. The Hatters have attempted the most crosses of anyone in the Premier League and completed the third-most into the penalty area.
Another path to success that Luton Town can have offensively in this match is on corners and set pieces. The Hatters are averaging 0.13 xG per corner, which is the second-best mark in the Premier League behind only West Ham, while Brighton are 19th in defending set pieces.
Brighton
Here is the thing with Brighton matches. The totals are very game-state dependent. If they score early and their opponent can’t just sink into a compact passive defensive block and have to give Brighton what they want, which is to press them, it creates a very open match. Brighton’s FA Cup match against Sheffield United over the weekend is a perfect example of that. Brighton went up two goals early and there ended up being seven goals in the match.
Brighton have run into a few problems with their build up because they only have one way of playing. De Zerbi wants his team to build out of the back, bait the opponent into pressing then once they get pressed they find the open space left by the defender that went to press the ball and exploit it.
What happens when opponents don't take the bait? Brighton are still trying to figure that out. However, they've been really good once they get the lead because then teams have to given them what they want, which is to aggressively press them high, creating a lot of opportunities for the Seagulls to create huge chances. Per understat.com, when Brighton are playing with a lead this season, they are averaging 2.07 xG per 90 minutes.
Even though De Zerbi wants his team to play through the middle of the pitch, it often benefits Brighton to get 1 v 1 situations out wide against the opposing fullbacks. Pascal Groß and Pervis Estupiñán are so crucial to Brighton's success because De Zerbi often wants his wingers to invert and play more centrally to help Brighton create chances through the middle. So, Groß and Estupiñán getting forward to create chances via crosses is a game changer for De Zerbi, especially in this match as Luton Town are 19th in crosses completed into their penalty area.
Luton Town vs Brighton
Prediction
The total for me is too low in this match. It's going to be very game-state dependent, but Luton are the worst defensive team in the Premier League and the worst team at defending the middle of the pitch, which is where Brighton want to dominate. These two met to open the season and Brighton put up a cool 4.0 expected goals on Luton Town at the Amex.
With that being said, Luton Town do have a path to success in this match offensively on corners and playing in transition, where they are at their best. Brighton have struggled in those two aspects defensively, so this could end up being a very open match with a lot of chances at both ends.
I have 3.7 goals projected for this match, so I like the value on the over.
