Luton Town vs Chelsea Odds
| Luton Town Odds | +550 |
| Chelsea Odds | -200 |
| Draw | +320 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -154 / +120 |
Chelsea look to keep the positive momentum going when they travel to Kenilworth Road to take on Luton Town.
Luton Town secured a massive 3-2 win over Sheffield United on Boxing Day, which now puts them in a decent position in the relegation battle. The Hatters are dealing with some key injuries in their defense, which could keep them from climbing up the table.
Chelsea got a late 2-1 win over Crystal Palace on Wednesday to get thing back on the right track. The Blues are way behind the rest of the big six at the moment after a poor first half of the season from a results standpoint. However, the underlying numbers have been very impressive and suggest Chelsea are only going to get better going forward.
Read on for my Luton Town vs Chelsea prediction.
Luton Town
Luton Town have been the worst defense by far in the Premier League as of late. Since the start of November they have conceded 20.7 expected goals, but only allowed 14. In their last match at Sheffield United they allowed the worst offensive team in the Premier League that hasn’t even eclipsed 1.5 xG in a single match to create 3.1 expected goals.
The biggest problem for Luton Town is they are not good enough in their defensive block to keep a team like Chelsea at bay. They have tried at times to press high and disrupt build up play, but then they are left incredibly open when the first line of the press is beaten, so there really isn't a solution for them right now.
Their defense is going to be very limited without their captain Tom Lockyer and even when they were at full strength earlier in the season, they allowed three goals and 2.2 expected goals to Chelsea in a 3-0 defeat. Not to mention two of their other key defenders Issa Kabore and Marvelous Nakamba are both going to miss this match as well, so a lot of that negative regression is likely going to hit Luton Town in this match.
Luton Town do have a path to success though in this match because Chelsea have been a bad transition defense. Chelsea have also been pretty average at defending crosses, which is how Luton Town create most of their chances, so there is a path to the Hatters putting the ball in the back of the net in this match.
Chelsea
The Chelsea underlying numbers offensively continue to be impressive. They have now created 12.5 xG in their last six matches and now they have a proven finisher in Christopher Nkuku healthy.
The biggest problem with Chelsea for the longest time has been their build up. Mauricio Pochettino was utilizing a disjointed 3-1-6, which can work if you have a great midfielder in the middle of the pitch at creating, but Chelsea don't have that. Against both Wolves and Crystal Palace, he was utilizing a much more structured 3-2-5 with Collwill tucking into the back three, Nkunku and Jackson staying central and Mudryk and Sterling out wide as creators. A lot of the top sides utilized a 3-2-5 build up, so it’s encouraging for a team like Chelsea, who were already averaging 1.70 npxG per 90 minutes with a build up structure that wasn’t working for their personnel.
Chelsea's overall metrics defensively are good, but there is one key area where they are struggling: transition defense. Chelsea are 18th in final third to box entry conversion rate allowed and basically all of the chances they've allowed have been when teams play very direct against them, which is how Luton Town plays. Chelsea are also without Reece James at the moment, which is concerning because Luton Town create most of their chances via crosses up the left flank and Malo Gusto is not that great of a defender.
If we look at what Chelsea matches have been like since the start of November, chaotic would be the word that comes to mind. The Blues have created the most expected goals during that time frame and have also allowed the second-most with their matches averaging a staggering 4.37 expected goals.
Luton Town vs Chelsea
Prediction
This match has choas written all over it. Since the beginning of November these two defenses have allowed the most expected goals in the Premier League and there really haven't been many signs of improvement.
One of the worst things you can do against Chelsea is give them time and space on the ball. Now that they have Nkunku healthy and have a solid build up structure that fits their personnel, they are an incredibly deadly attack that was already putting up great underlying numbers.
The problem with the Chelsea defense is they've been getting beat way too many times in transition, which is how Luton Town are going to play in this match.
I have 3.73 goals projected for this match, so I love the value on the over 2.5 at -145.
Pick: Over 2.5 (-145 via Caesars)
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