Luton Town vs Fulham Predictions, Expert Picks | Premier League Match Preview

Sunday, May 19

11 a.m. ET

Peacock

Luton Town Odds	+225
Fulham  Odds	+100
Draw	+300
Over / Under	3.5  +110 / -138

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Luton Town will play what is very likely their final game before making a return to the League Championship when they host Fulham in both teams’ Premier League finale on Sunday.

Technically, Luton are mathematically alive to remain in the Premier League this season. Realistically, it’s a near-impossibility that they will win and make up a 12-goal difference against Nottingham Forest, which they would also need to lose on the final day.

Fulham are guaranteed to finish no worse than 14th, where they currently stand entering their final fixture. But they also may struggle a bit for motivation with the summer break looming, with the ability to jump only two spots to 12th with an away win and the right results elsewhere.

Fulham defeated Luton 1-0 at Craven Cottage in the sides’ previous meeting in mid-September.

Find my Luton Town vs Fulham prediction & Premier League match preview below.

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Luton Town

Hatters supporters have only seen their team win four matches at Kenilworth Road this season, but they can’t say they haven’t been entertained.

Out of 18 games played at the intimate venue, 15 have either finished level or been decided by one goal. Both teams have also scored in 15 of those 18 games. And there have been some absolute instant classics, including Arsenal’s 4-3 victory in early December and Aston Villa’s 3-2 win in early March. 

But Luton’s shortcoming has been in playing to the level of their opponents. The Hatters have taken only nine points in eight games against teams currently in the bottom half of the table, against seven points from 10 matches against the top half. That includes defeats to Burnley and Sheffield United, the two other sides who will join Luton in the Championship next season.

Fulham

Meanwhile, Fulham’s home supporters have had plenty to cheer about this season, but those who have gone extra lengths to travel with the team may find themselves wondering why they’ve exerted the effort.

The Cottagers' nine home wins against three away victories is the largest disparity in the Premier League by proportion and the third-largest by overall number of wins. The xG numbers suggest less disparity in the quality of performances between the venues — Fulham’s home success has come mainly via exceeding xG predictions.

But against the teams in that lower half of the table, the Cottagers have earned points more often than not, taking four draws and a win from those eight games. 

More generally, the menace in Marco Sliva’s attack has felt lacking for a few games now. They’ve created 1.5 or fewer expected goals in six of their last eight games and scored only five times total in their last seven.

Luton Town vs Fulham

Prediction

Fulham have at times this season played some excellent attacking stuff, but more often than not they've disappointed in that area on their travels, and almost even more so against opponents in their region of the table.

Of their five multi-goal performances as an away side in the league, only two have come against bottom-half foes. In their eight previous away fixtures against teams in the bottom half, they've generated more than 1.5 expected goals in only one of those eight fixtures.

Luton have conceded in every home game against teams from that region of the table. But they've limited the damage to one goal more often than they haven't.

So there may be some value in playing Fulham's team total under 1.5 goals, which is at plus money at most books. And there's almost certainly value on the prop bet of Fulham to score exactly once at +200 and an implied 33.3% probability. The actual probability is likely closer to 40-45%.

Pick: Fulham to score 1 goal exact (+200 via BetMGM)