Major League Soccer Odds, Pick, Prediction: Orlando City vs. New England Betting Preview (Oct. 24)

Orlando City vs. New England Odds

The New England Revolution look to continue their march toward history when they visit an Orlando City side trying to solidify its spot in the playoffs.

New England already clinched the Supporters’ Shield for best regular-season record based on other league results on Saturday.

But after a 3-2 midweek win at D.C. United, they’re four points away from surpassing 2019 LAFC’s all-time record of 72 earned in one MLS season.

Orlando began the weekend five points clear of the East playoff line after a 1-1 home draw against fellow playoff pursuers Montreal on Wednesday.

New England won the previous meeting 2-1 in Foxborough, aided in part by Nani’s penalty miss for Orlando.

Orlando City Live & Die With Nani

Orlando have gone mostly as Nani has gone this season. Just look at his match log.

Some 10 of the Lions’ 12 victories this season have come in the 16 games when the former Portugal and Manchester United star has played more than 45 minutes.

That’s probably good news for the hosts. The 34-year-old is likely to rotate back into the first XI after coming off the bench Wednesday.

Overall, manager Oscar Pareja’s side is as healthy as they have been all season. That includes former Brazil star Alexandre Pato, who appeared late Wednesday for the first time since a foot injury sidelined him six months ago.

Pato might get a longer run Sunday, given that Daryl Dike has made consecutive starts at forward in a shortened time-frame.

Andres Perea could also return as an attacking option. He’s questionable after missing the draw against Montreal with a lower body injury.

Will New England Pursue Record?

If there was a time manager Bruce Arena would rotate his squad prior to the end of the regular season, it would be Sunday.

The Revs started all their big guns — Carles Gil, Gustavo Bou, Adam Buksa and Tajon Buchanan — in the comeback win against D.C.

They’ve wrapped up the Shield thanks to Kansas City’s victory Saturday at Seattle. And after Sunday they only play two more matches, one Wednesday in Colorado and then one at home 11 days later.

With the international break and a first-round bye to follow the regular season, resting his regulars now and then playing them in Matches 33 and 34 might be the best way to avoid rust.

In other words, the XI Arena fields may tell us just how much he cares about that points record. 

And if he does want to unload the bench, he can — everyone’s healthy for the Revs. That’s also a reason they’re sitting in their enviable position in the first place.

Betting Analysis & Pick

First, a disclaimer: This play is an educated guess at how the teams will approach this game, so it may be smart to wait on lineups.

With that said, Orlando can’t afford to take points for granted. And while I believe New England aren’t oblivious to their shot at history, I think they’ll pursue it in a balanced fashion and rotate the squad at least some for Sunday.

If for some reason more than one of Gil, Bou, Buksa and Buchanan don’t even make the gameday roster, the play is Orlando at any sort of plus money. 

My hunch, though, is most of those guys are on the bench and see the field in the second half.

That’s why a prop bet on New England to score the last goal at +110 odds and an implied 47.6% probability is the best play.

Even without factoring potential substitution patterns, the Revs are exceptionally good late. They lead Orlando 23-15 in goals scored after the 60th minute, 15-12 in goals scored after the 75th. They’re also better in goals conceded after the 60th minute, allowing only 12 to Orlando’s 17 goals.

Pick: New England To Score Last (+110)