Mallorca vs Cadiz Odds
Mallorca Odds | +105 |
Cadiz Odds | +320 |
| Draw | +210 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+175 / -225) |
| Both Teams to Score (Yes/No) | (+12 5/ -175) |
| Odds via Bet365. Get the latest soccer odds here. | |
Kicking off this weekend’s La Liga action, Mallorca welcomes Cádiz to the Estadi Mallorca Son Moix on Friday night.
The hosts are comfortably safe for another season in the Spanish top-flight and enter this match 12th in the league table.
Meanwhile, the visitors are one of the many clubs in the fight for survival, sitting 15th and just one point above the relegation zone.
It is difficult to leave the island with points and I expect that to be the case in another low-scoring La Liga contest.
Mallorca
It is very clear that manager Javier Aguirre has built one of the top defenses in Spain, which has helped mask the struggles offensively.
Mallorca ranks inside the top six in expected goals allowed per 90 minutes (1.13) and big scoring chances surrendered per match (1.33).
However, the side is on the other end of the spectrum when it comes to being a threat in front of goal. The island club is last in La Liga in xG per game (0.92) and shots per 90 minutes (8.91), while sitting second from the bottom in shots on target per match (2.85).
Aguirre’s team has been able to overcome those struggles in what looks like another successful season upcoming in the Spanish top flight.
Cadiz
Mallorca isn’t the only club that has issues scoring as Cádiz is also toward the bottom of La Liga in multiple attacking categories.
On the season, manager Sergio’s team ranks in the bottom five for their averages in expected goals (0.99), big chances (1.364), shots (9.82) and shots on target (2.7) per match.
In fact, there isn’t a single player on the club who has scored more than three league goals, which highlights the lack of offensive consistency.
Sergio’s side does boast a solid defense, but he needs to find a goal scorer if he plans to keep Cádiz in the Spanish top flight for another campaign.
Mallorca vs Cadiz Pick
I don’t see the visitors taking all three points, but I’m also not looking to back the home side on the moneyline in a match where I don’t predict a lot of goals. A same-game parlay is the best way to attack this fixture.
With that said, my best bet is pairing Mallorca double chance with the total falling under three goals (-143, Bet365).
Starting with the total in this parlay, 13 of 16 league matches on the island this season have ended with less than 2.5 goals, which is the most in La Liga. Meanwhile, 69% of Cádiz’s road fixtures have gone under this total.
The other key factor to this bet is both clubs' home and road splits. When Mallorca has faced a bottom-10 team at home, this play has cashed in five of eight games, losing just twice to go with a +3.8 xGDiff.
If you made the same play against Cádiz on the road, you would have posted a winning ticket on five of seven occasions. It also doesn’t help that Mallorca allows the fewest big chances at home in La Liga.
I don’t hate a look at the home side to Win to Nil at +180, but I want the push protection in case this ends in a goalless draw.
