The biggest match of the Premier League season so far takes place at the Etihad, as Man City battle Arsenal.
Manchester City and Arsenal have battled two straight years now for the Premier League title with Manchester City coming out on top on both occasions. Manchester City are in a difficult run of matches, as they were tested by Brentford last Saturday, drew Inter Milan in the Champions League on Wednesday and now will have to face the team that gave them the most trouble last season.
Arsenal are also in a difficult stretch. They won the North London Derby 1-0 over Tottenham but had to play on Thursday in Italy against Atalanta. They now have to face the Premier League champions, making it three away matches in a week. Arsenal are also dealing with some injuries to key players, which makes this trip to Manchester even more difficult.
Let's get into this crucial Man City vs. Arsenal fixture.
Man City vs. Arsenal Odds, Picks, Prediction
| Crystal Palace Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-0.5 -125 | 2.5 +100o / -125u | -125 |
| Man United Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+0.5 +100 | 2.5 +100o / -125u | +350 |
- Man Ciy vs. Arsenal moneyline odds: Man City -125, Arsenal +350, Draw +260
- Man City vs. Arsenal over/under: 2.5 goals (over +100, under -125)
- Man City vs. Arsenal pick: Under 2.5
I am backing the Under 2.5 in Manchester City vs. Arsenal.
Man City Preview
Pep Guardiola didn’t start any of his traditional wingers as Foden and Silva were always looking to invert into the midfield to create a 5 v 4, but the space was so tight that Manchester City couldn’t pick out any passes to them, so the possession became stale and they struggled to create chances. Manchester City got an early big chance from Nathan Ake in the 15th minute, but for the remainder of the match they did not attempt a shot with an xG rating over 0.10. Most importantly, Erling Haaland was limited to just three shots in the match.
What Manchester City need to do in this match is start both Doku and Savinho. Arsenal are likely going to allow them to go 1 v 1 against White and Timber because they need to make sure they always have a double on Haaland. However, Pep has shown time and time again he puts too much emphasis on dominating the middle of the pitch, so I wouldn’t be surprised if he decides to start only one or neither of them.
The status of Kevin De Bruyne is also very crucial. He's questionable to play in this game and if he doesn't Manchester City are going to have a really hard time playing through Arsenal's defensive block. Nobody else on Manchester City has his passing range and ability to create chances from outside the box. That was very evident when he missed the first meeting against Arsenal last season and City were only able to manage four shots and 0.4 expected goals.
PEP 💬 (On Kevin De Bruyne) He feels a little better today… Tomorrow we train and we will see. He could be [involved]. pic.twitter.com/YlLs9kVeJU
— Manchester City (@ManCity) September 20, 2024
Arsenal Preview
Arsenal went to Tottenham with the approach that they were going to sit deep, absorb pressure and look to counter. Something interesting that happened in that match was Arsenal’s structure. It was very compact and almost appeared to be a 5-5, reducing any space in between the lines and forcing Tottenham to play the ball into wide areas. From there, Arsenal let their fullbacks go 1 v 1 because Tottenham don't have wingers that can consistently beat defenders off the dribble.
In the end, Arsenal limited Tottenham to just 0.7 expected goals on 15 shots, but without Rice and Odegaard they weren’t that threatening in transition. They came with this same approach the last time that they played Manchester City. They sat in a 4-4-2 with the two forwards dropping to cover the two midfielders, which didn’t allow Manchester City to have an overload in the middle of the pitch. They also always made sure that Saliba and Gabriel were in a position to double Haaland any time the ball went through to him, which forced Manchester City to play the ball out wide. For Arsenal to be successful in this match, they have to overload and attack the wide areas.
They struggled in that previous encounter against Manchester City building through the middle, so oftentimes David Raya would simply send the ball long with Arsenal trying to win second balls, but they didn’t have a lot of success. Without Ødegaard available, Arsenal need to get the ball to Saka and Martinelli and try to get them into 1 v 1 situations out wide to create chances. However, Ødegaard is the one that typically shades to Saka’s side of the pitch to create that overload, so Arsenal are likely going to struggle to create chances in this match.
Man City vs Arsenal Prediction
These matches between Pep and Arteta are typically very low event and quite frankly, very boring.
There were under two expected goals created in both meetings between these two last season, as neither team was willing to take chances in possession to leave themselves exposed defensively. With Rice back in the lineup after serving his suspension, Arsenal will be at full strength defensively and their sole focus is going to be on not letting City play through the middle of the pitch and shutting down Haaland.
I only have 2.3 goals projected for this match, but given how the previous encounters have been going between these two sides, I’d be really surprised if three goals go in the back of the net.
