Man City aim to halt a two-match league winless run when they host a Fulham side that may be developing its own European ambitions following a strong start.
City have drawn their last two league games, home to Arsenal and away to Newcastle United, and now they enter the weekend a point behind Liverpool in what is still very early days in the league title race.
Fulham come into the clash in sixth on the back of successive wins at home to the same Newcastle side and then away to Nottingham Forest.
City have won 16 consecutive matches between the sides in all competitions in a run extending back to 2012. Fulham's last win in the series came in 2009.
Let's get into my Man City vs. Fulham prediction.
Man City vs. Fulham Odds, Picks, Prediction
| Man City Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-0.5 -400 | 3.5 +115o / -145u | -450 |
| Fulham Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+0.5 +280 | 3.5 +115o / -145u | +950 |
- Man City vs. Fulham moneyline odds: Man City -450, Fulham +950, Draw +600
- Man City vs. Fulham over/under: 3.5 goals (over +115, under -145)
- Man City vs. Fulham pick: Yes – both teams to score
I am backing both teams to score in Man City vs. Fulham.
Man City Preview
City's back-to-back draws would not be concerning by themselves given the caliber of opposition. But in the larger context, they could perhaps show signs that Pep Guardiola's group is vulnerable to finally be knocked off its perch as four-time repeat league champions.
There's Rodri's season-ending injury which was disclosed last week. While City had mostly managed without the Spanish midfielder this season, his influence last season was crystal clear — with all but one of four league losses coming in a brief stretch when he was sidelined last fall.
Then there's the specter of how hearings over alleged financial fair play violations might impact the on-field product, with those proceedings beginning a couple weeks ago.
Amid all that Guardiola still has an embarassment of riches at his disposal, and one that despite playing in Europe midweek should be fairly fresh given the nature of a 4-0 Champions League win over Slovan Bratislava.
Premier League golden boot frontrunner Erling Haaland and central defender Manuel Akanji were permitted to exit with the outcome well in control by the hour mark, and Phil Foden and Josko Gvardiol followed not long after.
Fulham Preview
Both the eye test and the data reveal a Fulham side that has been among the more consistent performers this season.
The Cottagers have gone unbeaten in the five matches since a season-opening defeat at Manchester United, and they have been worthy of all five results according to the expected goals data. Their average xG differential is about +0.7 per match across those five games.
A relatively weak schedule has to be factored into an evaluation of Marco Silva's side, which has already played two of this season's newly promoted clubs. But so does the fact that Fulham were also clearly better than their opponent in matches against West Ham and Newcastle.
Striker Raul Jimenez may never regain the form he had before suffering his frightening head injury while playing for Wolves, but Silva has gotten steady if unspectacular production from the 33-year old Mexican when he's healthy.
After supplanting the out-of-form Rodrigo Muniz, Jimenez has goals in each of his last three starts, and in the previous campaign he scored 0.45 goals per 90 minutes. That ratio was near his career high of 0.47 in the 2019-2020 campaign, though it didn't feel as prolific because of far more limited minutes.
Man City vs Fulham Prediction
The money on the "both teams to score" market is split down the middle here, which feels strange if you consider each club's recent habits.
Keeping clean sheets is a mentality issue, and it's a rare area where Guardiola's side has struggled despite all of its success, particularly when they are considerable favorites. The same pattern has emerged this season, with City's only clean sheet in the league kept in one of their most-hyped games, a season-opening 2-0 win at Stamford Bridge.
Meanwhile, despite their struggles to earn results in this fixture, Silva's men have found the goal in all but one league meeting between these sides during the last two seasons. And that exception came on the season's final day, when City were seeking to clinch their fourth straight title and Fulham had nothing but pride to play for.
So I'm backing yes on both teams to score here at -105 and an implied 51.2% probability. If it wasn't for City's extended winning streak in this fixture, I'd consider backing the Cottagers in some form based on recent performances. Because of those, I'm staying away from parlaying my yes wager with the City moneyline at +150 and an implied 40% probability.
Pick: Yes – Both Teams to Score (-105 via DraftKings)
