Man City vs Luton Town Odds
| Man City Odds | -1050 |
| Luton Town Odds | +2100 |
| Draw | +1100 |
| Over / Under | 3.5 -144 / +118 |
The last time these two sides faced off, Erling Haaland ran riot, scoring five in a 6-2 Man City FA Cup fifth round victory.
That probably won't happen again on Saturday, but with the relegation-threatened Luton Town coming to the Etihad, City will smell blood in the water as they hunt their fourth successive Premier League title.
However, Rob Edwards' Luton aren't the typical 18th-placed team. They've been shutout just once in their last 20 matches, and when they hosted City at Kenilworth Road in the league, they led at halftime and narrowly came out on the wrong end of a 2-1 scoreline. The Hatters can compete with the best, so this will be far from a straightforward contest for Pep Guardiola and co.
How do I think this will play out? Read on for my Man City vs Luton T0wn prediction and Premier League match preview.
Man City
City are coming off a wild Champions League night at the Bernabeu, where they drew 3-3 with Real Madrid in the first leg of their quarterfinal tie. Guardiola is still without Kyle Walker, and Nathan Aké and Kevin De Bruyne could also miss this fixture. Regardless, this is still one of the best teams in the world and there's a reason why the Cityzens are just a point back from first in the Premier League table.
One major factor behind Manchester City's success is Phil Foden. The 23-yard-old is putting together a Player of the Season-caliber campaign playing between the lines centrally, racking up 14 goals and seven assists. He also fired a screamer past Andriy Lunin on Tuesday, but was forced off with a knock in the 87th minute. It seems unlikely that issue would hold him out of this match, but if it does, City's attacking threat takes a hit.
Against a Luton Town side that will spend a decent amount of time defending in a horizontally compact deep block, City will have to rely on their wingers to create openings or, at the very minimum, provide good service into the box. Jérémy Doku or possibly Oscar Bobb will be given a start for this reason, and with the return leg against Real Madrid on Wednesday, Guardiola will be even more willing to rotate a bit.
Luton Town
This is one of Luton's final six fixtures of the league season, and sitting in the relegation zone — tied on points with 17th-placed Nottingham Forest, but with a slightly worse goal difference — they'll take anything they can get from this match. Confidence and morale in the Luton camp are also high right now, as the Hatters are coming off a 2-1 win against Bournemouth, where Carlton Morris found the decisive goal in the 90th minute.
Even if Rob Edwards would probably shake your hand off if you guaranteed him a draw from this game, his team hasn't necessarily been one that plays not to lose. Luton's proactiveness and courage, especially without the ball, has been one of the surprise developments of the season. They will press high and go man-to-man way more than a team with the lowest Transfermarkt squad value in the league and they should really be able to. That mentality has been what's kept Luton in the survival hunt for this long, and even with a laundry list of injuries — one that features several starters — it's not going to just vanish in a match where there's an obvious talent disparity between them and their opponent.
Man City vs Luton Town
Prediction
Luton's brave approach combined with their talent deficit and long list of absentees lends itself to a high-scoring affair, especially against Manchester City. On top of that, City need to catch up to Arsenal in the goal difference department, so there's an added incentive for the home side to continue piling on pressure even if they score first.
I'd put the chances of three or less goals in this game at very unlikely, so I like the over on a total of 3.5 at around 60% implied probability.
