Man City vs Man United Odds
| Man City Odds | -175 |
| Man United Odds | +400 |
| Draw | +350 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -200 / +162 |
A rematch of the 2024 FA Cup final and another addition of the Manchester Derby takes place with silverware on the line in the Community Shield on Saturday.
Manchester City won the Premier League, but it was the only trophy they won last season with Manchester United upsetting them in the FA Cup final. It's been a quiet summer for the Cityzens in the transfer market with the only real addition being Savio from Girona. They are the favorites once again to win their fifth straight Premier League title and will want to get off on the right foot on Saturday.
It's been an interesting summer for Manchester United. Despite severely underperforming in the Premier League they decided to stick with Erik Ten Hag as their manager. Outside of the FA Cup win, they got pummeled in both Premier League meetings against Manchester City and the summer recruitment hasn't been that positive either. So, they may very well be in for another thrashing on Saturday.
Man City Picks
Pep Guardiola got things totally wrong tactically last time around. United played a very narrow defensive block and City were too obsessed with playing through the middle and found it very hard to do so. The first half was terrible as Manchester City's high line was getting exposed time and time again. It eventually led to two goals before halftime, which caused Pep to sub on Doku and Alavarez to give them more of an attacking prowess.
They really didn't have any problems creating in the first two meetings against Manchester United, putting up a combined 7.3 expected goals on them in the two Premier League meetings, so you could honestly just chalk it up to it being Manchester United's day.
What is going to happen similarly to that FA Cup final is Manchester City are going to have very little resistance in their build up. Guardiola's team is very well drilled at breaking down low blocks and they will take a lot of the lessons they learned from that FA Cup final and apply them here. What they need to do is attack the wide areas more often. Game state is obviously big in this derby because the last two matches City have fallen behind early, but if they get the first goal and force Manchester United out of their passive defensive block, this one is getting out of hand quickly.
Man United Picks
One match does not define a manager, but it certainly saved his job. If Manchester United did not win the FA Cup final, Erik Ten Hag without a doubt would have been handed his pink slip walking out of the stadium. One match also doesn't suddenly turn you into a good manager again.
Here is the main problem with Erik Ten Hag. It’s not that he isn’t a good tactician or a good manager. He’s proven over many years at Ajax that he can manage a top club. It’s that he’s an extremist when it comes to his tactical plan. You see last year Lisandro Martinez and Luke Shaw were hurt for most of the season, and they were two of the most important players to Manchester United’s build up system. Instead of sticking with his tactics or simply playing more conservative, Ten Hag swung his team to the other end of the spectrum and played basketball matches with every single team with a team that wasn’t set up to do so.
They had relied on Casemiro two years ago to carry their entire midfield in terms of ball winning, but suddenly he completely fell off a cliff and they had nothing. They were pressing with their attackers, but not having their center backs and fullbacks come up and aid in the press, so once the first line of pressure was beaten teams had open season to run at their back line. It’s why Manchester United conceded 660 shots and took 120 less shots than their opponents last season. They also show in two of the three meetings against City that they are not really effective defending in a low block, as they gave up and absurd amount of shots.
United are going to rely on Kobbie Mainoo to carry their entire midfield, which simply isn't going to happen, so I think it's going to be a long day for a defense that allowed 2.17 npxG per 90 minutes over the final three months of the Premier League season.
Man City vs Man United
Prediction
This match is going to be a lot different than the FA Cup final. Guardiola is going to have a much better tactical plan to breakdown Manchester United's narrow defensive structure. Don't be surprised to see Doku or Savio start on the wing to give City a 1 v 1 dribbler to create chances and there really should be more of an emphasis on overloading the wide areas.
In the three meetings last season, Manchester City took at least 19 shots with all different game states. United are going to sit off an allow them to take a high number of shots once again.
So, I really like the value on Manchester City over 18.5 shots at -110.
