Man City vs Man United Odds
| Man City Odds | -350 |
| Man United Odds | +750 |
| Draw | +470 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 +106 / -140 |
After 141 years of not having a Manchester derby in the final, there's now been back-to-back meetings between City and United in the last stage of the oldest soccer tournament in the world.
Last season, City prevailed 2-1 en route to a treble, with Ilkay Gundogan's goal 13 seconds into the match the most memorable moment. Last year's result was yet another painful reminder for the red side of Manchester of the growing gap between the two clubs.
This campaign, the chasm between City and United has widened again. The Cityzens claimed their fourth Premier League title in a row, bettering the record of three-straight done twice by Sir Alex Ferguson's sides in the 90s and 2000s.
On top of that, City won both derbies this season by an aggregate score of 6-1, so United haven't even been able to claim the bragging rights that would come with a victory over their rivals.
Fortunately, they have one last opportunity at Wembley Stadium in their final fixture of the year to get something over the "noisy neighbors." Unfortunately, their chances of lifting the trophy don't look great, with City hovering around -700 to win the FA Cup, and this likely will end up being another embarrassment in a long line of embarrassments for Manchester United FC since Ferguson's departure.
Read on for my Man City vs Man United prediction and FA Cup Final preview.
Man City
There's probably not a more in-form team in the world than Manchester City. Pep Guardiola and co. rattled off nine consecutive league wins following their 0-0 draw with fellow title contenders Arsenal to ultimately become Premier League champions. Additionally, they haven't lost a match this calendar year — they drew both legs of their Champions League tie with Real Madrid — and their last defeat was a 1-0 at the hands of Aston Villa last December.
Fitness-wise, everyone is healthy besides Ederson. However, in the context of this match, that was unlikely to matter anyways, as Stefan Ortega had started in goal for City at every stage of the competition thus far. Ortega has proven himself as a more-than-capable deputy, and he made five saves in the Cityzens' 1-0 semifinal win over Chelsea.
Guardiola has gone through a couple of different in-possession structures throughout the course of this season, but their last encounter with United, where he had John Stones stepping into midfield next to Rodri to form a 3-2 base, is probably the best guide for what he'll deploy on Sunday. Kyle Walker and Nathan Ake, who are excellent transition defenders in wide areas, were on both sides of that back three to mitigate United's counterattacking threat, and it would be a surprise if the City manager didn't implement the same safeguards again. Otherwise, City's tactical approach is obvious — they'll dominate the ball and territory and aim to regain possession as quickly as possible when they do lose it.
Man United
If I had a nickel for every time Manchester United went into an FA Cup Final with a Dutch manager likely overseeing his last game at the club, I'd have two nickels, which isn't a lot, but it's still strange that it's happened twice, especially in the last decade. Of course, this is referring to Louis van Gaal, who was sacked two days after a 2-1 win over Crystal Palace in the 2015/16 FA Cup Final, and now ten Hag.
It's been a season to forget for United. They've finished eighth in the Premier League — meaning no European soccer next season unless they win this game — and finished last in their Champions League group, eliminating them from all continental competitions before the new year. Injuries haven't helped ten Hag's case, but tactically they've been a complete mess, and most metrics back that up as well. If anything, a top-half finish was generous in context of their performances across the season.
United are also fortunate to even be playing in this game, as they blew a 3-0 lead against Coventry City in the semifinal and looked second-best in extra time. Coventry weren't able to get the winner they deserved in the additional period and United came out on top on penalties. A win in this game would likely only be a silver lining — along with the emergence and integration of Kobbie Mainoo and Amad Diallo into the first team — on a dreadful campaign.
Strategically, no one should expect United to pull out any surprises. Ten Hag will set his team out to absorb as much pressure as they can and capitalize on whatever turnovers they get. Personnel-wise, things are less clear, as there are a number of players pushing to be back from injury for this game, like Luke Shaw and Lisandro Martinez. We won't know who's fit until the starting lineups come out on Sunday morning.
Man City vs Man United
Prediction
City are clearly the better team and are priced on the moneyline accordingly. However, if there's anything going in United's favor, it's that these are the exact type of game dynamics they want to play in. They'll be given license to sit back and play on the counterattack, utilizing the pace of their forwards and trying to exploit the space behind City's rest defense.
While I don't think that approach will be enough to win the trophy, especially in light of the defensive issues they've had this year, they will definitely have chances to score themselves. As a result, I like the value on the both teams to score and City to win at +160.
