Man City vs Newcastle Odds
| Man City Odds | -400 |
| Newcastle Odds | +900 |
| Draw | +550 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -275 / +225 |
The quarterfinal round of the FA Cup will take place this week as six Premier League clubs and two Championship sides will look to clinch their spot at Wembley for the semifinals in April. There are two matchups of Premier League vs. Premier League to headline the weekend slate, with Manchester City and Newcastle playing at the Etihad on Saturday.
City are the defending treble winners and they're plenty live to win the treble for a second consecutive season given that they are one point off the top of the PL table and into the quarterfinals of both the Champions League and FA Cup. Newcastle's only remaining hope for a trophy lies in this match after they crashed out of Europe and are languishing in the mid-table of the Premier League, unlikely to return to Europe next season unless they win the cup.
The primary issue for Newcastle has been their defense, which has been exposed in recent road trips to Chelsea and Arsenal. The Magpies conceded four to the Gunners and three to the Blues, and now they'll face the league's best team who had a midweek break. It's a bad spot and matchup for the underdog here.
Read on for my Man City vs Newcastle prediction and my FA Cup match preview.
Man City
Manchester City showed real vulnerabilities in the 1-1 away draw at Liverpool, and Pep Guardiola's side was unable to keep control of the match against the high energy and frenetic Liverpool style. Pretty much no one in the world can effectively control a match on the road at Anfield, so City's struggles should come as no surprise. Liverpool produced 2.6 expected goals including the penalty, and better Luis Diaz close control and shooting in the penalty area probably would have seen the Reds take all three points from that match.
It is true that City aren't nearly as dominant in their pressing and smothering of opponents when you compare this season to last season's treble campaign. Opponents are completing two percent more of their passes against City, and the Cityzens are forcing fewer high turnovers per game than years past. The defense is allowing 0.2 xG per match more on average, which doesn't seem like a lot but does matter on the margins.
Newcastle and City played twice in the PL this year and the matches were wildly different. At the Etihad, Guardiola played an extremely conservative style in possession, took almost no chances and prevented Newcastle from getting dangerous transition opportunities as a result. City won that match 1-0 at home in September. They played again in January, and Newcastle did find success in transition at home against a more aggressive City approach.
The Magpies led that match 2-1, but they were unable to effectively sit deep and absorb pressure without breaking. City recovered to win the match with two late goals. Newcastle's defensive fall off between the first and second meeting, as well as the injury pile-up, is the main reason to be skeptical of them.
Kevin De Bruyne isn't expected to play for City in this match, but the wide outlets of Jeremy Doku and Phil Foden are poised to feast in favorable matchups.
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Newcastle
Newcastle are still creating chances at a top six rate in the Premier League this season, but the defensive numbers never recovered from their November and December nosedive. The Magpies have conceded the fifth-most expected goals in the Premier League at even strength this season. They are bottom three in xG allowed per shot and bottom five in average shot distance allowed. It's the profile of a team that doesn't consistently get the field tilted on them, but when they do, the defense breaks quickly.
Newcastle are league average in box entries, shots and field tilt. But they're bottom three defensively on set pieces, bottom five in allowing big scoring chances and now just have average shot stopping to paper over the cracks. The decline in defense came along with Newcastle's injury situation. Not only did midfield addition Sandro Tonali barely play, but the fixture pile-up in the fall combined with injuries to Joelinton and Joe Willock left them shorthanded on transition defense ability.
The lack of pace in the Magpies' backline has been exposed this season, especially in wide areas where Dan Burn and Kieran Trippier haven't been effective enough at stopping dribblers or crosses. Trippier is out for this match and while Burn may play, top pressing forward Anthony Gordon has also been ruled out.
Man City vs Newcastle
Prediction
Newcastle's best chance of getting a result here is to sit extremely deep, absorb pressure and not allow City to get any transition opportunities. The problem is that Newcastle have shown in the Arsenal match that away from home, the defense isn't solid enough to prevent elite teams from tilting the field on them. Once City do get the first and Newcastle have to open up to play more aggressively, there will be even more space for Foden and Doku to produce in space.
Manchester City might concede a goal or even two on the break, but City will have no issues scoring themselves en route to an FA Cup semifinal appearance.
