Man City will look to go back atop the Premier League Saturday — at least temporarily — when they host struggling Southampton on Saturday.
City haven't been their typical dominant selves since the news of losing Rodri for the season with an ACL tear earlier this month. But they've still won four straight in all competitions to remain a point off Liverpool's pace entering the weekend.
Southampton enter second-from-bottom in the table and are still in search of their first victory since earning promotion back to the Premier League. But the Saints have at least shown some better attacking threat of late, scoring in their last five fixtures in all competitions.
City won both league meetings two seasons ago, but the Saints earned a famous home win in a 2022-2023 League Cup quarterfinal.
Here is my Man City vs. Southampton prediction.
Man City vs. Southampton Odds, Picks, Prediction
| Man City Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-0.5 -1200 | 3.5 -150o / +120u | -1200 |
| Southampton Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+0.5 +700 | 3.5 -150o / +120u | +2000 |
- Man City vs. Southampton moneyline odds: Manchester City -1200, Southampton +2000, Draw +1100
- Man City vs. Southampton over/under: 3.5 goals (over -150, under +120)
- Man City vs. Southampton pick: Southampton to score exactly 1 goal.
I am backing Southampton to score exactly 1 goal in Southampton vs. Man City.
Man City Preview
City have hardly had to reach top gear in recent straightforward UEFA Champions League fixtures, but all of their league fixtures of late have involved some element of late drama.
The Cityzens had to overcome an early deficit in a 2-1 win at last-place Wolves, stealing all three points via John Stones' header from a corner in second-half stoppage time. Before that, they had to hold off a late Fulham comeback bid in a 3-2 home victory.
But eventually Pep Guardiola's side will be punished if it keeps up the habit of conceding goals to lesser foes. City haven't kept a clean sheet against a domestic opponent since the league opener against Chelsea.
City's nine goals league conceded are only tied for the fourth-best mark in the league. And although their +10 goals differential is second-best behind Liverpool, that surplus shrinks to +3 since the beginning of September.
The squad issues are bigger than just Rodri, with Kevin De Bruyne and Kyle Walker among those on the shelf.
Southampton Preview
The margins for Premier League survival were always going to be razor thin for a Southampton side that returned to the top flight via the playoffs. And that's what must make the early season so exasperating for Saints manager Russell Martin and his charges.
The Saints have out-generated opponents in terms of xG twice — against Newcastle and Ipswich — and earned only one point from those fixtures. Overall, Southampton are performing almost a goal worse than its xG differential of -0.8 per 90 minutes.
But perhaps the worst news is that the Saints have yet to face any of the current top seven sides in the table. Arguably their toughest fixtures so far have been twin 1-0 defeats to Newcastle and Nottingham Forest to open the season.
Cameron Archer (2 goals) is the only Southampton player to have found the net more than once. But he's also one of the worst offenders in terms of underachieving xG, having received 3.4 xG worth of chances so far.
Man City vs. Southampton Prediction
This should be a relatively easy day for City that could use one given their injury issues and crowded schedule.
But keeping clean sheets is a habit, and it's one that City repeatedly struggle to master both this season and even in more dominant runs earlier in the year.
The Saints have been wasteful so far, but they do carry more attacking threat in their system than you might expect from the typical relegation. And they will still see the value in scoring a late consolation goal if they go behind by multiples.
So I'm playing the visitors to score exactly once here at +170 and an implied 36.3% probability, one of the better prices you'll ever see on this kind of wager. It has already cashed on 9-of-16 occasions between these teams' league games, perhaps most importantly in City's two previous games against foes in the current relegation scrap.
