Man City vs Tottenham Odds
| Man City Odds | -350 |
| Tottenham Odds | +900 |
| Draw | +500 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -300 / +240 |
Last year’s treble winners, Man City, will be hosting Ange Postecoglou’s Tottenham Hotspur in a top of the table clash on Sunday. These two sides will be looking to stay towards the top of the Premier League table in what is sure to be a tactical battle between two elite managers.
Manchester City are coming off a thrilling 3-2 comeback victory over RB Leipzig in the Champions League. They also currently sit second in the Premier League table and a win in this one could potentially propel them to the top spot once again.
Spurs have hit a bit of a bump in the road after their unbelievable start. They have lost three straight matches and have fallen to fifth in the table. A win for them would be massive for their top four hopes.
This is one of the most anticipated matchups of the season, so let’s see how I am predicting Man City vs Tottenham.
Man City
City are once again towards the top of the Premier League table, but it has not been their typical walk in the park to get there. On paper, their results have been quite convincing, but when you look at some of the underlying numbers in those matches, this team is not playing up to the standard of their treble winning season last year.
Don’t get me wrong, they have still easily been one of the best sides in the league this year, but it is much closer than it has been in recent years. Especially at the Etihad this season, they have been a bit off the pace. In their five matches at home, they have only created 8.5 xG. However, in those five matches they have scored 17 goals, over-performing their xG tally by almost 10 goals. That is in no way, shape or form sustainable over the duration of a Premier League season and they are destined to see some regression in these finishing numbers.
Of course, the absence of Kevin De Bruyne has been massive as he is one of the best midfielders the Premier League has ever seen. Whether we see Bernardo Silva, Phil Foden or Julian Alvarez in that role, no one will be able to emulate what De Bruyne offers this side. He is so key in how Guardiola wants to play and when this incredible finishing over-performance cools off, it will become very evident how much he is missed.
Tottenham
Tottenham have taken their foot off the gas in terms of the title race, but with the number of injuries that have piled up in recent weeks, that was expected. Ange will be without James Maddison, Micky van de Ven, Pape Sarr, Richarlison, Rodrigo Bentancur and Cristian Romero in this match. Those are six players who could start in most Premier League sides. It will be no easy task to find a solution in this injury crisis.
These injuries force Heung-Min Son to play on the wing when he is much more effective as a central forward. This also forces Ange to start players like Emerson Royal and Ben Davies as his center backs because there is no one on the bench that he trusts to fulfill the duties of van de Ven and Romero.
Even with all these injuries, Ange has not changed how he approaches every match. He plays his style of pressing, high-line football that has been so enjoyable to watch at certain points this season. It is admirable that he is sticking to his guns and how he wants to do this, but without the correct personnel it can cause a disaster defensively which we have seen in recent weeks.
They conceded almost 2 xG in their last match to Aston Villa, over 2 xG to Wolves and over 4 xG to Chelsea. These numbers are not sustainable for a team who wants to be challenging for the title, so while it is more exciting to watch Ange’s way of playing, it may be wise to be a little more conservative against one of the best teams in world football.
Man City vs Tottenham
Prediction
Manchester City have looked like a completely different side at the Etihad versus away from home. They are scoring at a similar rate, but their underlying numbers are worrying for a side that has always been so dominant at home.
Even with Ange’s attacking style of football, Spurs have only conceded 9.4 xG away from home in 7 matches this season. That is a very encouraging number for a side that leaves such a high line and is always looking to get men forward.
After taking everything into consideration, I will be betting on under 3.5 goals in this match. We have seen it time and time again with the matchups between the “big 6.” Both sides are more concerned with not losing the match than they are with winning them, which typically results in a lower total.
