Man United look to turn their season around when they host Brentford at Old Trafford.
Erik Ten Hag's job is on the line over the next few weeks. The Dutchman may finally get the ax if Manchester United stumble in their next two matches. The Red Devils are winless in their last five matches in all competitions, so they really need to get three points from this match.
The Bees went into the international break in style, putting five goals past Wolves to pick up their third Premier League win of the season. Brentford have been a thorn in the side of the big six ever since they were promoted to the Premier League, with countless upsets against England's elite. They dominated Manchester United in their last meeting, so they will be live underdogs on Saturday.
Here is my Man United vs. Brentford prediction.
Man United vs. Brentford Odds, Picks, Prediction
| Man United Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-0.5 -143 | 2.5 -200o / +162u | -143 |
| Tottenham Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+0.5 +120 | 2.5 -200o / +162u | +350 |
- Man United vs. Brentford moneyline odds: Man United -143, Brentford +350, Draw +320
- Man United vs. Brentford over/under: 2.5 goals (over -200, under +162)
- Man United vs. Brentford pick: Brentford +0.5
I am backing Brentford +0.5 in Brentford vs. Man United.
Man United Preview
Manchester United put in a dud performance against Aston Villa on the road before the international break where they really provided nothing offensively. The only good chances they got were from Marcus Rashford cutting in to get off a shot. In the end, Manchester United were only able to muster 0.6 expected goals off of 10 shots and only had nine touches in Aston Villa’s penalty area.
United defensively put in a good performance because they decided to sit in more of a mid-block than press Aston Villa high up the pitch. However, with them being at home and a big favorite, I think you will see Erik Ten Hag have his team pressing Brentford’s build up. When they tried to do that towards the end of last season, it was a total disaster. The fullbacks wouldn’t come up and aid in the press, so Brentford continually had easy outlet balls out wide to the fullbacks to get an easy 2 v 1 to eventually create chances.
Manchester United’s press has improved from last season. They are having their back line come up to aid in the press, but it’s often a man to man press, which does leave them in 1 v 1s across their back line. Brentford have a lot of really good transition attackers like Bryan Mbeumo, who can exploit anyone across Manchester United’s back line.
United are also still dealing with quite a few injuries. Kobbie Mainoo, Alejandro Garnacho and Mason Mount are all questionable, while Luke Shaw, Noussair Mazraoui and Harry Maguire are out. That leaves United with a lack of depth in key positions, especially defending in wide areas, where Brentford are so good offensively.
Brentford Preview
While Brentford are trying to build out of the back more often, which has had bad results so far, they are a really good team when they want to play direct. The Bees are completing 57.7% of their long balls this season, which is the third-highest rate in the Premier League.
They are also the quickest starters in the Premier League as well, scoring four straight goals inside the first two minutes of a match this season. That is not by coincidence because kick offs to Brentford are viewed as set pieces. Since they are so successful at completing long balls they will often send one out wide to try and catch teams off guard with an early cross, and it’s been working.
Crossing is the main way Brentford have been creating most of their chances. The Bees have completed the most crosses into the penalty area and have the third-highest aerial duel win rate in the Premier League. Manchester United are 15th in percentage of crosses allowed into their penalty area, which will be a big advantage for Brentford.
Along with crossing, Brentford are going to have a huge advantage on set pieces. Manchester United have been doing a really poor job of defending them this season, ranking 17th in xG per set piece allowed. The Bees have consistently been one of the best set piece teams in the Premier League since they’ve been promoted and their set piece taker Mathias Jansen is returning from injury as well, which is huge.
Man United vs. Brentford Prediction
Manchester United are vastly overvalued in this spot. The last time these two teams met it was all Brentford despite what the final scoreline showed. The Bees outshot Manchester United 31 to 11 and won the expected goals battle 3.2 to 0.6. Brentford’s 77 touches in Manchester United’s penalty is still a record to this day. That is how badly they beat them.
In addition to that beatdown, Manchester United needed two stoppage time goals from Scott McTominay to come from behind to beat Brentford 2-1 at Old Trafford last season. Before those two stoppage time goals, Manchester United had only created 0.86 expected goals at home against the Bees.
That performance was no fluke either because Brentford have been a thorn in Manchester United’s side ever since they’ve been promoted. Sure, Brentford have only beaten them once in six meetings, but the cumulative expected goals over those six meetings favors Brentford 9.2 to Manchester United’s 8.3.
I only have Manchester United projected at +121, so I love the value on the Bees +0.5 at +120.
