Man United vs Burnley Odds
| Man United Odds | -182 |
| Burnley Odds | +425 |
| Draw | +375 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -275o / +220u |
Manchester United looks to make it two wins in a row when it hosts Burnley at Old Trafford.
It's never a dull moment in Manchester, as United was down, 2-1, in the second half against Sheffield United on Wednesday before roaring back to win, 4-2.
Erik ten Hag is not only battling for his job but also for sixth place in the table, as Manchester United owns a three-point lead over Newcastle. A win here is vital if it wants to maintain its Europa League spot.
With its win over Sheffield United last weekend, Burnley is still very much alive to avoid relegation, as it sits only three points behind Nottingham Forest. It's been tough times for Vincent Kompany, but his team's underlying performances may give it value.
Man United
Manchester United's performance against Sheffield United was an improvement, but there are still some glaring fatal flaws that even a team like Burnley can exploit.
United tried at various times to build out of the back against Sheffield United, which in large parts of the match, were playing very passively.
However, the first goal the Red Devils conceded came when the Blades decided to press them from a goal-kick situation, leading to an errant pass by Andre Onana and an easy goal.
A third goal of the season for @Jayden_bogle in #MUNSHU 👏 pic.twitter.com/GdV4KJeJZN
— Sheffield United (@SheffieldUnited) April 24, 2024
The problem that exists for Manchester United right now is it has to do one of two things because of injuries.
- It has to play out of the back and try to control matches with a Harry Maguire and Casemiro center-back pairing, which is not its strong suit.
- It has to play the ball long and get into up-and-down transitional matches.
Neither are great options at the moment. United often gets caught in between two different tactical approaches, which leads to mistakes and easy chances for the opponent.
The out-of-possession pressing structure is completely flawed as well and still hasn't changed in months.
The Red Devils pressing with only their attackers and not having their fullbacks or center backs come to aid in the press allows teams that can build up to play right through them and make runs at their back line.
In 2024, Manchester United has kept one clean sheet in the Premier League. It's held only two opponents under one expected goal, and it's conceding 2.27 xG per 90 minutes.
So, yes — even Burnley can create chances against United.
Burnley
The performances for Burnley have improved toward the end of the season, and it's because Kompany has become more versatile in his tactical approach.
During the first part of the season, Burnley was still playing its possession-dominant, build-out-of-the-back, high-pressing style from the Championship, which wasn't working against the elite competition in the Premier League.
So, he switched his team to a 4-4-2 and had it play more passively and in a better defensive structure. But that also didn't work because the team was set up to play a certain way coming into the season.
Now that Burnley has spent some time playing in a 4-4-2 while still being a team that builds out of the back team in certain matches, it's starting to play much better.
In 11-on-11 situations since the beginning of March (Burnley has had two matches ruined by red cards), the Clarets own an xGD per 90 minutes mark of just -0.15. That's better than teams like Aston Villa, Everton and even Manchester United, which has a -0.92 xGD over that same period.
One of the reasons why they've improved is because of a change at goalkeeper. James Trafford is more of a ball-playing goalkeeper and was not bought in to be an elite shot-stopper.
Arijanet Muric was Burnley's No. 1 in the Championship last year, but management chose Trafford to begin the season.
However, Muric has played the last six matches and has been significantly better, which is why Burnley has seen an uptick in its performances.
Image via FBRef.
Man United vs Burnley
Prediction
Manchester United hasn't found a way to control matches against weaker opponents for a full 90 minutes.
It controlled things at times against Coventry and Sheffield, but the minute those weaker teams start to be more aggressive out of possession and press United, it either leads to mistakes in build or creates a back-and-forth transitional match, which always gives the underdog a chance at an upset because United has been so bad defending in transition.
With all of the injuries Manchester United is dealing with and how poor it's been against bottom-of-the-barrel teams recently, Burnley is absolutely live for an upset here — especially considering its ability to press out of possession and build out of the back against United's flawed press.
I only have Manchester United's spread projected at -0.70, so I like the value on Burnley +1.5 at -140.
