Man United vs Everton Odds
| Man United Odds | -120 |
| Everton Odds | +300 |
| Draw | +260 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -150 / +120 |
Manchester United's run of four consecutive wins in the league came to an end in the last two defeats against Fulham and Manchester City. The Red Devils haven't been able to keep their best XI healthy for nearly enough minutes this season, and the overall performance level and point tally have both fallen well short of preseason expectations. Young striker Rasmus Hojlund won Premier League player of the month in February and now his injury has left United quite shorthanded in attacking options these last two matches.
First choice defenders Luke Shaw and Lisandro Martinez will also be out for the Red Devils once again, and their lacking ball progression without these two key passing cogs is notable. Manchester United matches have become extremely open and transitional because of their inability to control matches with structure and possession. As a result, the Red Devils are extremely volatile on a match to match basis and quite vulnerable to get picked off as a favorite.
Man United sit in sixth place and their Saturday opponent Everton sits in 16th, but the underlying performances of both teams all season long suggest that Everton has actually been the better side, especially on defense. For this reason, the Toffees are a very live underdog to kick off match week 28 of the Premier League.
Let's dive into Man United vs Everton.
Man United
Marcus Rashford's first half wonder strike masked what was a pretty poor Manchester United performance in the derby. Their local rival created 3.3 xG in total, and United only attempted one shot in the entire second half. The Cityzens easily progressed the ball through the middle of the pitch and had 67 penalty area touches in the United box. Manchester United had nine in the City box.
The Red Devils' entire defensive profile is a mess out of possession. They've forced a good number of high turnovers this season, but the midfield is way too open and teams face little resistance getting into the penalty area against them. Manchester United have conceded the sixth-most penalty box touches, the eighth-most final third entries and they rank dead average in field tilt this season.
Everton don't hold much possession and uses long balls more than almost every other team in the Premier League. United are bottom seven in the league in pass completion rate allowed on long balls. There's no area of the outfield pitch where United are consistently better than its opponents and that's why they concede the fourth-most shots and sixth most xG per match in England.
United generally do an okay job of preventing high quality chances and they rely overwhelmingly on the plus shot stopping of Andre Onana to overcome the fact that they concede 15+ shots in the majority of their matches in all competitions this season.
The absence of Hojlund is significant because they don't have a suitable replacement for his 0.4 xG and central runs. Alejandro Garncacho has produced a quality season as a winger (0.52 xG + xA per 90) and Rashford is expected to be fit for Saturday. They'll become reliant on the shot production and goals from Scott McTominay, but he also makes them worse in possession from his advanced midfield role.
Everton
Few matches serve as a better microcosm of the Everton season than the Toffees' 3-1 defeat to West Ham last Saturday. The Toffees have been the victim of the three best individual goalkeeping performances of the entire season — their losses to Fulham, West Ham and Wolves. On the whole season, only Brighton have faced a higher standard of opposition goalkeeping shot stopping, and the poor variance (plus financial penalties) have a mid-table quality team sitting in 16th.
Everton's defense has conceded the fourth-fewest xGA this season, making them the best defense of the non title contenders. The Toffees are elite at not conceding big scoring chances and allowing a low xG per shot, a staple of almost all Sean Dyche teams of the past. Everton also excel on set pieces at both ends of the pitch. The Toffees have created the most xG from set pieces in the PL and scored the second-most goals. Defensively, they allow the lowest xG per set piece.
Given that Manchester United are a bottom five set piece defense, that's a major deficiency that could cost them in this matchup when Everton gets dead ball situations.
The underlying profile of the Everton attack doesn't produce particularly interesting soccer from open play. They are bottom seven in the league in final third entries, box entries and build-up completion rate. It's a lot of long balls, drawing corners and fouls and this has made them an inconsistent favorite against lesser sides who cede possession to Everton.
Man United vs Everton
Prediction
With Manchester United still shorthanded and missing key defenders and Hojlund, Everton are closer to a toss-up to get a result in this match. The Toffees' advantages on set plays and more consistent defense gives them a high floor, and Manchester United's volatility on a week-to-week basis has been one of the only consistent trends of this Premier League season.
I'd bet Everton to get a result at -110 or better and sprinkle some moneyline at +270 or better.
