Man United vs Fulham Odds
| Man United Odds | -155 |
| Fulham Odds | +320 |
| Draw | +390 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -188 / +140 |
Man United look to make it six straight wins when they host Fulham at Old Trafford.
Thing are seemingly headed in the right direction for Manchester United as they mount a charge towards the top four. However, it's come by some pretty fortunate luck, as they've been out played in two of their last four wins and have some pretty mediocre underlying numbers for the season.
Fulham are treading water in the bottom half of the table as they have only one win in their last seven matches in all competitions. Their form away from home has been dreadful, but given they way they performed against Manchester United in the previous match, they definitely are live to pull off an upset.
Here is my Man United vs Fulham prediction.
Man United
Manchester United may have gone through a four match win streak, but they still are not even close to a team that can compete for the top four. They have won seven Premier League matches this season where they have lost the individual xG battle in the match. One of those was a 1-0 win at Craven Cottage over Fulham where they got outshot 18 to 12 and got bailed out by a late Bruno Fernandes goal. In that match, Manchester United did not register a shot with an xG rating above 0.10.
Erik Ten Hag has conceded the fact that his team is not going to be able to control matches anymore, so he’s trying to press high with his attackers in hopes of getting a turnover and if they don’t get it, their midfield and back line are incredibly exposed. Luton Town took a whopping 22 shots against Manchester United on Sunday after Manchester United had already gone up 2-0 inside the first 10 minutes.
The injuries across the back line are starting to mount for Manchester United. Lisandro Martinez is already out for an extended period of time and now Luke Shaw, who is arguably their most important player on their back line given his versatility, is now out for a while as well. The Kobiee Mainoo and Casemiro midfield combined doesn't have enough ball winning for Manchester United to be pressing with only their front line. Then you combine that with the fact that they are basically playing a second-choice back line, you can see why teams have been able to exploit them in transition and why they are allowing 1.56 npxG per 90 minutes.
Fulham
Fulham have terrible away underlying numbers, but to be fair to them they have played basically all of the good teams away from Craven Cottage already. Eight of their 12 away matches have come against teams in the top half of the table, so it’s no wonder they are struggling.
There are a couple of key aspects to Fulham that can give Manchester United issues here at Old Trafford. First off, when they decide to play direct, they have done a good job at evading an opponent's high press. Fulham are seventh in offensive PPDA this season and in the previous meeting with Manchester United they limited the Red Devils to just five high turnovers in the match. Manchester United are 12th in build up completion percentage allowed, which just goes to show how ineffective their high press has been at disrupting opponents that like to build out of the back.
Secondly, Fulham have gone back to their old ways of trying to create chances via crosses. To their credit, they have completed the most crosses of anyone in the Premier League into the penalty area. Also, Muniz has proven to be a pretty stable option up top for them because he is actually producing respectable shot production numbers compared to Raul Jimenez. In a little over six 90s, Muniz is averaging 3.8 shots per 90 minutes, while Jimenez is at 2.6.
Man United vs Fulham
Prediction
Negative regression is going to hit Manchester United – it's only a matter of time. They cannot continue winning matches being this flawed out of possession and giving up 20+ shots to teams in the relegation fight.
The fact that they are disrupting build up play should tell you all you need to know about how bad their pressing truly is. Fulham are a top half team in the Premier League at playing through pressure and they did it very effectively in the previous meeting. This time around the Cottagers will also have a better striker up top.
Given how crazily Manchester United has been over-performing lately, I really don’t see why they should be laying a full goal at home when they’ve only won two Premier League matches this year by multiple goals.
I only have Manchester United’s spread projected at -0.62, so I like the value on Fulham +1 at -101.
