Man United vs Fulham Prediction
| Man United Odds | -175 |
| Fulham Odds | +425 |
| Draw | +333 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -188 / +150 |
After losing on penalties in the Community Shield, Man United look to get their Premier League campaign off to a better start when they host Fulham.
It was a pretty good performance from United against their rivals in the Community Shield, but they ultimately fell short. There is a lot of pessimism surrounding Old Trafford because of the ownership deciding to stick with Erik Ten Hag after a disastrous Premier League campaign last season. They lost to Fulham at home last season and could be in store for another upset on Friday.
Fulham once again finished comfortably in the middle of the table and far clear of the relegation zone. The Cottagers have made steady improvements under Marco Silva and now look comfortably far away from the relegation fight. They gave the Big Six some trouble last season, so don't shocked if they pull off another upset at Old Trafford.
Let's dive into my Man United vs Fulham prediction.
Man United Picks
The biggest question for Manchester United is what changes under Erik Ten Hag this season that suddenly makes them better? They lost to Fulham at Old Trafford last year because they abandoned their build up and got into a back and forth type of match, which really favored Fulham as they are a transition-based team.
Manchester United are going to build out of the back a lot more this season, but I think there are real question marks surrounding their offense. Bruno Fernandes does everything for them without much production from anyone else. Rasmus Hojlund is a transition-based striker that was good for them with their style of play last year, but now if they want to be a good build up team he’s not really the striker they need, which is why they signed Joshua Zrikzee, who is great as a deep lying playmaker, but is not a good finisher.
Manchester United only averaged 1.34 npxG per 90 minutes and created the fewest amount of big scoring chances of anyone in the Premier League. Just because they are changing to be more of a build up team doesn’t mean their offense is suddenly going to be really good.
There are already a lot of key injuries for United, who are going to be without Luke Shaw, their new signing Lenny Yoro and Rasmus Hojlund for the opener, while Harry Maguire and Victor Lindelof are both questionable.
Fulham Picks
Fulham lost their most important player during the transfer window in João Palhinha and now they have a massive hole in the middle of their defense. Against most teams it would be a big problem, but against Manchester United I am not sure it’s as big of a deal.
Fulham have turned into a really solid team when they are playing in a passive defensive block and make it really hard for teams to play through the middle, which is ultimately what Manchester United are going to try and do. They finished last season fifth in final third to box entry conversion rate and seventh in total box entries allowed. Their defense was at their best towards the end of last season too. From March 1st until the end of the season, Fulham allowed 1.46 npxG per 90 minutes, which was actually seventh-best in the Premier League. On the other hand, Manchester United were allowing 2.17 over that same time frame.
Fulham made a key addition during the transfer window bringing in Emile Smith-Rowe from Arsenal to help their attack. Smith-Rowe's last few years at Arsenal have been plagued by injury, but when healthy he's one of the better attacking midfielders in the Premier League. In fact, during the 2021/22 season, he scored 11 goals in all competitions for Arsenal, which was second-most behind only Bukayo Saka. So, he will add a much needed boost to Fulham's offense.
Man United vs Fulham
Prediction
Given how bad Manchester United's underlying metrics were last season, finishing with a -12.5 expected goal differential (which was worse than Fulham), I don't see a reason why they should be this big of a favorite at home.
Manchester United's defense last season was so bad that their opponents outshot them by 120 shots and they had the fifth-worst expected goal differential in the Premier League. With the same manager at the helm, things aren't going to magically turn around right away.
Finally, Manchester United out-created their opponents by more than one expected goal only five times last season and combined xG in their two matches against Fulham was 2.4 to 2.2 in favor of Manchester United.
I only have Manchester United projected at -130 and their spread at -0.72, so I like the value on Fulham +1 at -110.
