Man United vs Liverpool Odds
| Man United Odds | +390 |
| Liverpool Odds | -170 |
| Draw | +360 |
| Over / Under | 3.5 -120 / -102 |
The latest edition of the Man United vs Liverpool derby will be an important one in the race for the Premier League title as well as the Champions League race.
Liverpool are currently the favorites to win the title, with the Reds a point behind Arsenal despite having a game in hand. For Man United, a nine-point gap will need to be overcome if the Red Devils want to play in the Champions League.
Ahead of a massive contest, read on for our expert analysis of the match.
Man United
Manchester United enter this match with a real injury crisis in defense. The Red Devils are already without Victor Lindelof and Lisandro Martinez for an extended period of time and both Raphael Varane and Jonny Evans were forced off early in the 4-3 defeat at Chelsea on Thursday. Manager Erik ten Hag hasn’t given a clear answer on whether they’d be fit for Sunday, but given the quick turnaround, the fact Varane only played a half and then Evans was subbed on and subbed off, the prospects of either being fit is not encouraging.
That leaves Harry Maguire and 19-year-old Willy Kambwala as the center back pairing to face the league’s most daunting attack in Liverpool. Casemiro picked up an injury and also came off with 15 minutes to play on Thursday, so it’s likely that breakout star Kobbie Mainoo will pair with Scott McTominay in midfield, the same pairing that played against Liverpool in the FA Cup two weeks ago.
The Red Devils should be optimistic about their attacking ability in transition against Liverpool given how successful they were in that last meeting. United parked the bus in the first meeting without Bruno Fernandes in a goalless draw at Anfield, but this match should look a lot more similar to two weeks ago given United’s recent improvement in attacking form.
For all of United’s defensive flaws — and there are many — the Red Devils are capable of threatening in transition against a porous Liverpool defense away from home. The Reds have conceded 1.5 xGA per match on the road this year, and Manchester United continued to find success in getting deep into the Liverpool penalty area by attacking down United’s left flank. McTominay scored the early goal, and United totaled 28 shots, 3.93 xG and five big scoring chances in 120 minutes of action.
United didn’t do much to slow down Liverpool in that meeting and likely won’t in this one either, but the Red Devils have multiple avenues to scoring here as a sizable home underdog.
Liverpool
Liverpool will be looking for a little revenge after losing 4-3 in extra time to Manchester United in the FA Cup a few weeks ago.
What was pretty shocking about that match is just how exposed Liverpool were defensively to a team that can only create chances in transition. Including extra time, Manchester United were able to get off 28 shots and create 3.93 expected goals, which is one of Liverpool’s worst defensive performances of the season.
What ended up happening is Manchester United would overload the left side of the pitch to target Joe Gomez and Alexis Mac Allister. Since Joe Gomez would often invert into the middle of the pitch when Liverpool were in possession it left space out wide for Rashford to operate and with Konate not available, United were able to exploit them with Bruno Fernandes shading over to that side of the pitch.
Liverpool’s press was somewhat effective in the previous meeting, but it needs to be better than the previous meeting if they are going to beat Manchester United. Since the calendar turned to 2024 and Wataru Endo has been in the Liverpool squad, their press has been hitting home at an incredibly effective rate. In 2024, Liverpool’s PPDA is 6.5 and in the previous meeting with Manchester United they forced eight high turnovers.
This time around, Konate will be available, which will be huge for Liverpool because of his ability to defend in space. For Liverpool to not have a repeat of the previous meeting either their press will have to hit home at a better rate or they will have to deal with long balls better when Manchester United go over top of the press.
Manchester United vs Liverpool
Tactical Analysis
There’s a saying in college football that during rivalry week you can throw the record books out, because they have no bearing on what will happen in that game.
In addition to the record books, you can throw the tactics and conventional notions of “formation” and “structure” out in this one, because — guess what — they won’t matter either.
Erik ten Hag wants Manchester United to be the best transition team in the world. Jürgen Klopp’s Liverpool are actually one of the world’s best teams in transitions. A clash between these two sides is guaranteed to elicit one thing: a game that looks like it’s straight from the 1980s. It might as well be Graeme Souness and Bryan Robson squaring off in the midfield, not Alexis Mac Allister and Kobbie Mainoo.
On top of the strategic philosophies, the occasion and circumstances mean both clubs will be gunning for all three points. United will be desperate to make up for what happened against Chelsea at the midweek, and Liverpool, in Klopp’s final visit to Old Trafford, need a win to stay ahead of Arsenal and Manchester City in the title race.
With both teams playing vertically and pressing high, success in this contest very quickly becomes contingent on individual – not collective – dominance. Whichever side wins more duels and second balls is going to have the upper hand, as their attackers will naturally get more opportunities — via “faux” transitions — to find the back of the net.
So, if winning the one-on-one battles is the path to victory, how do both coaches adapt?
For Klopp, it’s pretty simple, because he’s been instilling this condition on games since he got to England. Expert duelers Wataru Endo and Ibrahima Konaté will be preferred to Ryan Gravenberch and Jarell Quansah, and everything else stays constant.
Ten Hag doesn’t have the same luxury of choice, but he’ll likely deploy the same starting XI he put out against Chelsea, with two changes. First, Marcus Rashford gets reinstated in place of Antony, and second, Aaron Wan-Bissaka and Diogo Dalot swap sides, as the former is much better suited to deal with Mohamed Salah in defensive 1v1s.
Ultimately, I’d give Liverpool, who are superior at the individual level across the pitch, the edge. However, you really never know in this derby, and the first two meetings between these teams this campaign are proof of that.
Man United vs Liverpool
Prediction
Cunningham: Manchester United give up 20 shots walking off of the bus these days and Erik Ten Hag is not willing to change his philosophies because they are getting results. Because Manchester United don't have their back line come up and aid in the press, once the first line of the pressure is beaten, the opponent has acres of space to run at their back line in transition, which is what happened in the previous meeting against Liverpool.
Over their last five matches, Manchester United are giving up an average of 26.4 shots per match and I don’t see anything really changing here against Liverpool on Sunday.
I have Liverpool projected for 25.2 shots here in this match, so I like the value on their shot prop over.
Pick: Liverpool Over 19.5 Shots (-105 via BetRivers)
Dabbundo: Liverpool’s defensive metrics away from home are a clear weak point when you look across the board at their entire statistical profile. They’ve conceded at least 1.4 expected goals in 11 matches in all competitions this season, and nine of them came away from Anfield. The two lone exceptions were Brentford and Manchester City home, the former of which came with a heavily rotated Liverpool midfield.
Even with Wataru Endo back in the expected XI, Liverpool showed clear weakness in each of their last three matches on the right side of their defense. Brighton, United, Manchester City and even Sheffield United created their best chances by progressing the ball up that wing and exploiting the space in behind Liverpool’s high press.
The Reds will face off against Manchester United’s mediocre out of possession pressure and while Liverpool is likely to break through this press and create plenty in their attack, they’ll struggle to cope with United in transition when the Red Devils do turn them over.
As a result, I’m betting on Manchester United to put a scare into the title favorites on Sunday.
Picks: Manchester United to score first half (+105), United to score 2+ goals (+135), sprinkle ML (+375)
