Man United vs Liverpool Odds
| Man United Odds | +270 |
| Liverpool Odds | -118 |
| Draw | +320 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -225 / +175 |
High flying Liverpool come to Old Trafford for the first big test of the Arne Slot era to take on Manchester United.
Manchester United had a defensive lapse in the final minutes against Brighton, and it ended up costing them a point they had worked so hard for. The performances under Erik Ten Hag have been better than they were last season, but Manchester United still have a long ways to go if they want to contend at the top of the table. A home match against Liverpool will be a good test to see how much they've improved because the Reds dominated them in all three meetings last season.
Liverpool have been the most impressive team in the Premier League through two matches as Arne Slot has everything clicking. They've dominated Ipswich and Brentford in back to back matches, but now they will take a step up in competition to see how good Slot truly is.
Here is my Man United vs Liverpool prediction.
Man United
Manchester United have without a doubt looked much better this season than last season, but that is a really low bar to clear. They faced a bad build up team in Fulham. They went to Brighton and at times were very good with the press, forcing Brighton into a lot more long balls than they wanted. The thing is though, as the match progressed they resorted back to their old way.
The last 25 or so minutes against Brighton was a basketball match, which is what Manchester United were playing over the entirety of the second half of the season. The reason the match turned into that and why Manchester United could control it at all comes down to a few really key things they are still struggling with defensively.
When Manchester United press, they are usually pressing in a front three because a lot of teams are building out in a 3-2-5, so the aim is be able to match man to man in the first phase. The problem is the wingbacks will drop deep for an easy outlet pass and the fullbacks will not come up and press them. That means opponents have an easy run down the flanks and can overload them to create chances. Then when Casemiro and Mainoo are being asked to push up to aid in the press, there are free runners in the half spaces, which is what Brighton exploited time and time again.
Offensively United are building up mainly in a 3-1-6 to overload the last line of defense, which has been working, but in this match it’s going to be really hard to get those opportunities because Liverpool are going to put a stranglehold on possession.
Liverpool
Arne Slot is doing some amazing things with Liverpool in their first few matches. First off, he’s turned Liverpool into more of a possession-oriented team, rather than the direct style under Klopp. The Reds will typically build up in a 3-2-5 with Trent Alexander-Arnold inverting into the midfield to utilize his ability as a long range passer and creator. The aim of the Slot system is always three man combinations. The front three of Salah, Jota, and Diaz are all interchangeable to get Liverpool into the best position when they have the ball, which makes them so difficult to defend if they are constantly in 3 v 2 situations in build up.
Out of possession, Liverpool have become more conservative, which in my opinion is a positive. They aren’t relentlessly counter-pressing like they were under Klopp, instead opting for more of a mid-block when they lose the ball. They also have drastically improved their transition defense. Under Klopp, the high line was a big staple because van Djik and Konate were such good defenders they could mop up a lot of those transition breaks and it allowed Liverpool to commit more guys to the counter-press to create high turnovers and easy transition opportunities.
Against Brentford, Liverpool were so good at making sure they were getting back once they lost the ball, so the Bees never had numbers in transition. They will do the same against United, which should limit the number of chances they allow.
Man United vs Liverpool
Prediction
So far through two matches, Liverpool have created over five expected goals and taken 37 shots, which is the most of anyone so far this season, showing how effective Slot’s offensive tactics are at steadily creating chances.
Slot hasn’t completely taken Liverpool’s identity away from them, however. The Reds at their core are one of the best transition teams in the world, so when they have opportunities to break they take it, and they are ruthless. Brentford didn’t allow them too many transition opportunities, but the main one that they got was finished.
A textbook counterattack from Liverpool and the Reds strike first at Anfield. 💥
📺 Peacock pic.twitter.com/F0Qr87EnM7
— NBC Sports Soccer (@NBCSportsSoccer) August 25, 2024
Liverpool racked up the amount of chances and shots they had against Manchester United last season. They met twice in the Premier League and once in the FA Cup and created a combined 10.3 expected goals and 86 shots.
I have Liverpool projected for 26.3 shots, so I think there is a lot of value on their shot total over.
