Man United vs Luton Town Odds
| Man United Odds | -300 |
| Luton Town Odds | +800 |
| Draw | +425 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -188 / +140 |
Man United look to get back on track after a 4-3 loss to Copenhagen in the Champions League when they host Luton Town.
Things are bleak for Erik Ten Hag, whose seat is getting warmer and warmer with each loss. Manchester United are currently sitting in eighth place in the Premier League table and they are honestly lucky to be there with how many late wins they've had this season. This is a perfect opportunity to get the ship back on course against a bottom side.
Luton Town almost pulled off a stunner against Liverpool on Sunday, conceding a goal in the 94th minute to draw 1-1. It was a huge result for the Hatters in their quest for survival, as they are now sitting above the drop zone on goal differential over Bournemouth. They have struggled in the few matches against Big Six competition, but Man United are not playing like a Big Six club at the moment.
Let's get into my Man United vs Luton Town prediction.
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Man United
The biggest question on everyone's mind right now is, what is wrong with Manchester United? Well, there are lots of things that are wrong and it starts with Ten Hag.
He has switched his tactics, build up formation and style of play so much over the last month. The main reason for it is because of the lack of personnel due to injury. The biggest problem with Manchester United has been their build up play. The Red Devils don't have anyone to connect the play from the midfield to the front line. To combat this against Copenhagen, Ten Hag had his team build up in a 4-2-4 shape to given them plenty of options in build up against a man to man press. Honestly, it worked, as United were no longer playing long ball after long ball up to the front line. Rather, they were using quick combination passes to build through Copenhagen's pressure. It led to two early goals. Then, a red card happened in the 40th minute and United completely fell apart.
We just saw them play a low block transition opponent in Fulham last Saturday and they were incredibly poor in that match as well. The Red Devils only managed to create 0.7 xG from 12 shots. While changing build up shapes and getting more personnel involved deeper in the pitch is great, United still don't have the personnel to be able to consistently play through pressure with success. Without Lisandro Martinez, Luke Shaw and Casemiro, they are limited if they want to build out of the back, especially against a team that presses high like Luton Town.
What is crazy about Manchester United's underlying numbers is based on understat's expected points model, they have over-performed to this point in the season by 4.5 points and with that over-performance they are in eighth place. That is how bad Manchester United have been.
Luton Town
Luton Town are one of the least talented teams in the Premier League and they were lucky to keep Liverpool to a draw, as they allowed the Reds to create 2.6 xG.
What Luton Town aer finding out is that they are not very good in their low block when they play elite offenses. So, that means they have to come out and press more, which hasn't gone well against good build up teams. They have given teams around them in the table some problems and even have gotten some key results, like beating Everton 2-1 at Goodison Park.
Luton Town are such a fascinating team because of how the market perceives them. The market has consistently priced them like they are clearly the worst team in the league, but that is no longer true. In fact, I don't even think they are the second-worst team in the Premier League.
They have a very unique was of playing and creating chances offensively. It's pretty clear they do not have the midfielders and attackers to try and build up or play through the middle of the pitch. So, what Rob Edwards wants his team to do is exploit the space out wide with overlapping fullbacks to create chances via crosses into the box. Through 11 matches, Luton Town have attempted the most crosses of anyone in the Premier League and have completed the most crosses in the opponent's penalty area.
Out of possession, Luton Town are incredibly active and are trying cause problems when opponents try to build out of the back. The goal is to force high turnovers to create transition opportunities when the opponent is out of position. They've had a lot of success doing just that, as the Hatters have forced the sixth-most high turnovers and have 16 shots off of those forced high turnovers, which is top five in the Premier League.
Man United vs Luton Town
Prediction
If you are going to back Manchester United's spread of -1.5 here, you are asking them to do something they yet to do in the Premier League this season. That's right, outside of a 3-0 win over Crystal Palace in the League Cup where the Eagles rotated most of their squad, United haven't beaten anybody else by multiple goals.
The question coming into this match is, can they replicate their performance against Copenhagen before the red card happened for a full 90 minutes? Given the personnel they have, I am not sure they are able to do that.
Luton Town have shown glimpses of pressing high and getting forward dangerously in transition at times against bigger competition and are without a doubt live to potentially pull off an upset.
So, I like the value on the Hatters spread of +1.5 at -110.
Pick: Luton Town +1.5 (-110 via BetRivers)
