Man United vs Man City Odds
| Man United Odds | +400 |
| Man City Odds | -150 |
| Draw | +275 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -133 / +105 |
This is the big one. The first Manchester Derby of the season comes this Sunday at Old Trafford as United look to change their fortune, while City look to keep pace towards the top of the league.
United currently sit eighth in the league, having won five and lost four in their nine matches so far. They come off a 2-1 win over Sheffield United in their last match, where again they did not play particularly well. If they do not find some run of form soon, they could see their chances of a top four finish slip away.
After losing three of four matches over the last month, City have found their form, beating Brighton and Young Boys in two consecutive matches. Pep and his men will be well up for this one as they look to potentially go top of the league if results go their way.
Let’s get into how this Manchester Derby will shape up and how to bet this Man United vs Man City match.
Man United
It is no secret that Ten Hag is under pressure, and the metrics for United have been just as discouraging. In their last three matches, Scott McTominay scored two late goals to beat Brentford 2-1, they won 2-1 against Sheffield United but lost the xG battle and they beat Copenhagen 1-0 only due to a 97th-minute penalty saved by Andre Onana.
Without the good fortune in those three matches, Ten Hag could be out of a job and United could be in the bottom half of the table. United are 11th in both xG and xGA when they were projected by most to finish in the top four of the league. They have performed like anything but a top four side and have been outplayed in the majority of their matches.
They have underperformed their xG by 2.7 goals but even so, they have not been playing well. That's partly because Ten Hag has not given them an identity to build off of. They are not an elite pressing side with 12.6 PPDA, they aren’t an elite counterattacking team nor are they an elite build up side.
There’s no two ways about it. Manchester United have been nothing but a mid-table club this season and the results have reflected this. Yes, they have been unfortunate with the number of injuries, but a club the size of Manchester United should have the quality throughout their entire squad to not rely so heavily on certain players.
They will most likely be without Luke Shaw, Lisandro Martinez, Casemiro and Wan-Bissaka in this one. City are already hard enough to beat, especially without three of your starting four in the backline.
Man City
Manchester City have not looked like their normal selves over the past month. With the amount of quality that the City players have, it is surprising that they have been struggling going forward against teams that you would typically think City would walk all over.
Pep and his men have accumulated just 15.6 xG in their first nine matches this season. In comparison, City managed 20.3 xG throughout their first nine matches last season. Obviously, the absence of Kevin De Bruyne has been a massive loss to how City want to play. De Bruyne is a massive piece of their build up play and can do things that no one else can. No matter how good Julian Alvarez and Phil Foden are, they have not perfected the midfield role in Pep’s midfield like De Bruyne has over the past seven years.
Apart from Akanji being suspended for this match, City will have a full-strength lineup. It will be interesting to see which attacking players will get the start in this one. Whether it is Doku, Grealish or Foden on the wings, I anticipate City to be in control of possession. Especially with the makeshift backline of United, elite ball carriers like Doku and Grealish will be able to penetrate players like Dalot, Lindelof and Maguire.
City’s biggest problem has been creating clear cut chances, but their finishing is so elite that they have been able to get away with it. Despite not playing their best football, they still sit second in the league and have a chance to go top with a win at Old Trafford.
Man United vs Man City
Prediction
United have not put together a dominant 90 minutes yet this season. They have only played three sides in the top half of the table, yet sit eighth in the league. I see absolutely no value on United in this match, even with it being at Old Trafford.
This has been the most City have struggled over the past few years, and they are still second in the league. This just goes to show that City at their worst are still one of the best teams in the league and they are still drastically better than the way this United team is playing.
I don’t see much value City, but I do not see a way United win this match with the state the club is in right now. Therefore, I like City to win this one at -135.
