Man United vs Newcastle Odds
Man United Odds | +120 |
Newcastle Odds | +250 |
| Draw | +240 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-104 / -122) |
| Both Teams to Score (Yes/No) | (-122 / -104) |
| Odds via FanDuel. Get the latest soccer odds here. | |
The first major English trophy of the season will be awarded on Sunday at Wembley Stadium as Manchester United faces off against Newcastle. United have a chance at their first trophy under new manager Erik ten Hag, while Newcastle will play for their first major trophy since 1955.
Man United and Newcastle have met once in league play, a match that ended 0-0 and lacked clear scoring opportunities at both ends of the pitch. United are in excellent form at the moment after their comeback victory against Barcelona in the Europa League playoff round on Thursday.
They've played a lot more matches than Newcastle in the last few weeks and do come in on short rest, but Newcastle are also down to their third string goalkeeper because Nick Pope is suspended and Martin Dubravka is cup tied and unavailable to play in the competition for them.
The market sees United as a solid favorite to lift the trophy, but Eddie Howe's improved Magpies could slow down the Red Devils enough with their excellent defensive underlying numbers.
Manchester United Playing Exciting Brand of Soccer
Manchester United have played a more high event style of soccer since returning from the World Cup break. In 791 league minutes of 11-on-11, they've averaged 2.15 xG per 90 and conceded 1.09 xGA per match. The schedule has included two matches against title contenders Arsenal and Manchester City, so the attack appears to have really taken a step forward in the last two months.
The question is whether or not it's sustainable when you consider the lacking production outside of the red hot Marcus Rashford. As good as Rashford has been for the Red Devils, the auxiliary production around him isn't nearly as consistent. Wout Weghorst isn't giving them much in terms of shot production and Antony is back from injury but doesn't get a lot of high quality shots either.
Rashford went off in the 88th minute against Barcelona on Thursday and is now questionable for the League Cup final on Sunday. Ten Hag said he didn't know if he'd be available, which would be a huge hit to the United attack.
The defense took a step back when Casemiro was out of the lineup too, and his return should bolster them in this matchup against a Newcastle side that wants to live in transition. He's still an elite ball winner and he helps United keep control of possession and the game when he's on the pitch.
There have been multiple times this season where United have lost control of games tactically once he's left the pitch. His return on Sunday will help United defensively. As a unit, they've conceded at least 1 xG or multiple goals in four straight league matches without him.
Newcastle Looking For Big Performance in Big Game
Newcastle's attack has regressed solidly in the last month of the season. There have been some injuries, but it's also mostly a product of the forwards regressing in its performances.
They were getting elite production from Miguel Almiron, Callum Wilson and Allan Saint-Maximin. We have a solid track record of what these players are at the PL level, and the three of them are not enough to sustain a top four attack in the English top flight.
In the right system, which Howe has set them up in, they're good enough to produce as roughly the sixth or seventh-best attack in England. Newcastle's attack is 10th in final third entries, sixth in shots, sixth in xG per 90 and fifth in expected threat. The Magpies are winless in four matches in the league and failed to produce more than 1.2 xG in three matches against Crystal Palace, Bournemouth and West Ham.
They're still the most efficient attack in the league at turning final third entries and getting the ball into the penalty area. That's because they're quite good at forcing high turnovers and then breaking at the penalty area into space with numbers. That will be harder to do against the improved Manchester United possession structure, especially now that Casemiro is back in the lineup for the Red Devils.
Newcastle did struggle for results in part because Bruno Guimaraes was suspended. He's their best ball winner and deep lying playmaker in midfield. He's also one of the best two-way midfielders in the league right now and he should help them slow down the pace of this final and keep Manchester United out of transition.
Man United vs Newcastle Pick
The return of the two Brazilian midfielders from suspension means that both defenses should be better than they've performed without them of late. Newcastle's attack has started to regress and there's still more room to fall. The biggest question hanging over this final is what to expect from Loris Karius in goal for Newcastle.
The loss of Pope is important form a shot stopping perspective and a reason why the market moved toward Manchester United once he was suspended. But United could have a limited or diminished Rashford on Sunday too, which could be a significant hit to their attacking quality and output.
Both sides did a good job of negating transition opportunities in the first league matchup. While both defenses have been suspect the last few matches, both sides will be more risk-averse given the stakes and the defenses should benefit from being healthier now. I'd bet the under 2.5 at -125 or better.
