Tottenham travel up north to Old Trafford for big six showdown with Man United.
Manchester United are in a difficult stretch at the moment. They are coming off a 1-1 draw with Twente in the Europa League and haven't had the best start to their Premier League season. Erik Ten Hag's side is sitting in the middle of the table as his seat continues to get hotter by the day. There have been improvements offensively for United, but their defensive issues continue to do them in week after week.
Spurs are coming off back to back wins against Brentford and Qarabag to get their season back on track. It's been a difficult start for Tottenham as they are sitting in the middle of the table and falling behind the league leaders. This is a difficult spot for them playing on only two days rest and having to travel to Hungary in the midweek to take on Ferencvaros in the Europa League.
Here is my Man United vs. Tottenham prediction.
Man United vs. Tottenham Odds, Picks, Prediction
| Man United Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-0.5 +130 | 2.5 -225o / +175u | +130 |
| Tottenham Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+0.5 -180 | 2.5 -225o / +175u | +180 |
- Man United vs. Tottenham moneyline odds: Manchester United +130, Tottenham +180, Draw +285
- Man United vs. Tottenham over/under: 2.5 goals (over -225, under +175)
- Man United vs. Tottenham pick: Tottenham Over 14.5 shots
I am backing the over on Tottenham taking 14.5 shots in Tottenham vs. Man United.
Man United Preview
There have been improvements to Manchester United this season with their build up structure and a lot of it has to do with their best players being healthy. Lisandro Martinez and Matthijs de Ligt have proven to be a solid center back partnership and they allow Manchester United to play the ball short from goal kicks, which means there able to exert more control over matches as opposed to last season, when they constantly had to play extremely direct.
The other aspect that has made their build up effective is the addition of Joshua Zirkzee. He is able to drop deep and connect the play from the second to the third phase of build up, which is going to be big against Tottenham given how aggressive Spurs have been with their high press. For the season, Manchester United are averaging almost 57% possession and are fifth in terms of field tilt, which has translated to them averaging 1.89 expected goals per 90 minutes.
What hasn't gotten better for United is their defensive set up. Their press was one of the worst in the Premier League and if they try to press Tottenham in this match, Spurs are going to play right through them. Their press is too narrow and the opponent consistently has easy outlet to the fullback to run at their back line.
Where Manchester United are at their best defensively is when they sit in a passive defensive structure, denying space through the middle. They've done it on a couple different occasions and it's the way to slow down Tottenham's offense.
Tottenham Preview
Tottenham are having a lot of problems in possession right now and it all comes down to their inability to break down low blocks.
Brentford gifted them a number of chances by turning the ball over in their own final third when they were trying to build out of the back, but against Arsenal and Newcastle, who both sat incredibly deep and played very direct, Tottenham really struggled to generate high quality chances. In those two matches the t0ok 35 shots and only created 1.9 expected goals off of those chances. The biggest problem that Tottenham have right now is they don’t have wingers who can beat the opposing fullbacks in 1 v 1 situations. Brennan Johnson and Heung Min Son are below the 50th percentile for successful take ons in the last calendar year.
Tottenham are the most aggressive pressing team in the Premier League right now and it worked against Brentford. That is a principle under Ange Postecoglu that is not going change, as Tottenham are always going to be extremely aggressive, which does leave them vulnerable to counterattacks and balls over the top. They currently lead the Premier League in PPDA and high turnovers, so if United decide to try and build out of the back with regularity they could cause them some problems.
Man United vs Tottenham Prediction
It's pretty clear at this point in the season that the way to slow down Tottenham is to play a very compact low defensive block to not allow them to have a central overload. When the space in the middle becomes to congested it doesn't matter if Tottenham have a 6 v 5 overload, there simply isn't any space to pass the ball through their opponents.
That means that Tottenham are settling for a lot of low quality chances, which could be the case against Manchester United if they decide to sit in the same defensive set up at Arsenal and Newcastle did. With that being said, Tottenham can cause problems for United's build up, which is about the only way they are going to create big scoring chances.
There really isn't any value anywhere in the main markets, but Tottenham are averaging over 17 shots per 90 minutes and they are going to continue to play aggressive no matter what the score line is. I have Tottenham projected for 19.4 shots in this match, so I like the value on Spurs over 14.5 shots.
