Man City vs. Brighton Odds
| Man City Odds | -550 |
| Brighton Odds | +1300 |
| Draw | +600 |
| Over/Under | 3.5 (+126 / -152) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 10 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Peacock |
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Manchester City host Brighton on Saturday at the Etihad Stadium in what should be an entertaining match in the Premier League.
The Cityzens have had the week to ponder over the disappointing defeat at Liverpool, which opened up a four-point gap at the top of the table.
Meanwhile, the Seagulls are still winless under new manager Roberto De Zerbi, dropping the club down to eighth following the great start to the campaign.
Both teams like to play a very possession and attacking-based style, and I think we should see goals in this EPL fixture.
A Wake-Up Call for an Already Dominant Manchester City
The loss at Anfield was the first defeat of the season for City, and it was also the first league game where manager Pep Guardiola’s side lost the expected goals battle and failed to score.
You have to expect that Guardiola will be able to use the performance to get a reaction out of his team, especially with the gap widening to Arsenal in first.
However, the Cityzens have still been a very dominant side this season. The Manchester side is at the top of the league in big scoring chances created (39), goals scored (32) and xG per 90 minutes (2.33), according to fbref.com.
It helps when you are able to add one of the best strikers in the world over the summer in Erling Haaland, who has already racked up 20 goals in all competitions.
Chances For Brighton, But a Lack of Finishes So Far
This has not been the start De Zerbi was looking for when he joined Brighton a few weeks ago. His side earned draws against Liverpool and Nottingham Forest and fell to defeats to Tottenham Hotspur and Brentford.
To make matters worse, the Seagulls have failed to score in three of his four games in charge, but there are signs that the scoring struggles should not continue.
Brighton have created 5.2 expected goals and 12 big scoring chances in the four fixtures, which is not far off what the team was producing before he became the manager.
The issue is who is going to be the striker that finishes off the scoring opportunities, with the veteran Danny Welbeck being the only true number nine on the roster.
Betting Analysis & Pick
When I look at this game, I think we have a great opportunity to see goals in an open match. So, my best bet is for the total to fly over 3.5 goals at +126 odds.
City have played five league home games this season, and this bet would have cashed in all of those fixtures. In fact, Guardiola’s team finished with at least four goals in all of these matches.
On the campaign, the Cityzens are averaging 2.62 expected goals and 4.4 big scoring chances per 90 minutes at the Etihad.
Brighton also tend to play in more entertaining matches away from home, especially at the Big 6 sides. At Manchester United and Liverpool, the games finished with a combined nine goals, which included a six-goal thriller at Anfield in De Zerbi’s first match in charge.
The Seagulls have also generated more xG and big scoring opportunities on the road compared to at the Falmer Stadium, while also allowing more totals in those categories to their opponents away from home as well.
You could also play a Single Game Parlay, pairing together the Yes on Both Teams to Score with the total going over 2.5 goals at +123 odds. However, I’ll stick with my bet in case the bad scoring luck continues for the visitors.
The Pick: Total Over 3.5 Goals (+126)
