Don’t know what to make of Manchester City anymore? Trust me, Pep Guardiola feels your pain.
Let’s try to clear some of those doubts ahead of this exciting Premier League match between the Citizens and Aston Villa at Villa Park, scheduled for Saturday, Dec. 21, at 7:30 a.m. ET.
Here is my Manchester City vs. Aston Villa prediction and Premier League odds for this game.
Manchester City vs. Aston Villa Prediction, Pick, Odds
| Man City Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-0.5 +100 | 2.5 -170o / 135u | +110 |
| Aston Villa Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+0.5 -135 | 2.5 -170o / 135u | +235 |
- Manchester City vs. Aston Villa moneyline odds: Manchester City +110, Draw +265, Aston Villa +235
- Manchester City vs. Aston Villa over/under: 2.5 Goals (Over -170, Under +135)
- Manchester City vs. Aston Villa pick: Over 2.5 Goals
I am backing Over 2.5 goals in the Manchester City vs. Aston Villa match.
Manchester City Prediction
Manchester City are dismayed and frustrated. No image summed up these struggles better than the cuts and bruises on Guardiola’s nose and forehead last month when his team tied 3-3 with Feyenoord after losing a three-goal lead in the Champions League.
Rodri’s season-ending injury and other players’ absences fail to fully explain the team’s dramatic drop in form. This side not only won the last four Premier League titles but began this season with seven wins and two draws in their first nine matches, with a +11 goal differential (20-9) in that span.
It is a tale of two "cities" indeed. Erling Haaland, their relentless scoring machine, has followed the same path. After a record-breaking nine goals in the first four games — and ten in the first five — he suffered a drought, by his standards, with just three in the past 11 matches.
No one else has stepped up except for defender Josko Gvardiol, their unlikely second-best scorer this season with four goals.
Guardiola acknowledged he hasn’t been able to find a way back to form, but time is running out if he doesn’t want to fall out of contention for the title — or even a Champions League spot next season.
Of course, they will bounce back. Or so everyone has thought for the past month and a half while they collected five losses in seven games in the Premier League. But with such a loaded squad, it’s bound to happen at some point. That quest begins again at Villa Park against a challenging opponent.
Manchester City's main task is to improve their efficacy in both areas. The team leads the league in shots, although it has underperformed in front of goal, scoring 28 times compared to 29.7 expected goals. They're last in tackles, partly due to their high-percentage (62.7) possession style, but rank first in last-man tackles, given how often they have to run back to help their goalkeeper.
Most concerning of all, they have conceded 14 goals in their past seven contests.
Aston Villa Prediction
Aston Villa's resurgence under Unai Emery has been a wonderful story in Birmingham, with the team returning to European competitions and helping their fans feel proud instead of nostalgic for the club's rich history. But as their rivals have learned the hard way, this season is all that matters now.
After four wins in their first five matches, the Lions have regressed and become unreliable, especially on the road. Their home and away splits are telling. They sport a +4 goal difference (13-9) at Villa Park and -5 (11-16) with a 3-1-4 record on the road.
However, this fixture will be played at Villa Park, their fortress. After losing to Arsenal 2-0 in their home opener, they’ve been unbeatable there since, with four wins and three draws.
The recent track record at home against Manchester City also brings out the optimism in Villa fans. The Citizens have been unable to defeat them in their last two visits.
Emery knows how to compete against top teams and will try to exploit whatever edge he can get. Aston Villa's offensive strength comes from play down the wings, one of City's weaknesses in defense, since Pep likes to get his right and left back closer to the middle of the pitch when they have possession of the ball.
Aston Villa will also try to crowd the box and send as many crosses as possible. They are Premier League leaders in goals via headers (7) and rank fifth in corners taken.
Villa's top goalscorer, Ollie Watkins, should be fully fit, and young talents Jhon Duran and Morgan Rogers have proven this season they can wreak havoc up the pitch against any opposition.
Manchester City vs. Aston Villa Prediction
City dominates the head-to-head series, but recent form and results at Villa Park carry more weight. The current champions have failed to keep a clean sheet in their past seven encounters with the Lions, and although they won five of those, the exceptions were the past two matchups in Birmingham (a 1-1 draw in 2022 and a 1-0 defeat a year ago).
With their star power, the sense of an imminent return to top form and Pep’s proven brilliance, Manchester City maintains a slight edge on the moneyline, despite the challenges of this away fixture.
Nevertheless, both teams' needs and poor defensive records of late suggest a high-scoring game. Aston Villa ranks seventh and Manchester City ninth in goals conceded. They're are also next-to-last and last in goalkeeper saves.
So, we should expect goals, especially if Haaland decides it's time to turn it back on.
Manchester City vs. Aston Villa Pick: Over 2.5 goals (DraftKings)
