Manchester City vs. Borussia Dortmund Odds
| City Odds | -600 |
| Dortmund Odds | +1400 |
| Draw | +650 |
| Over/Under | 3.5 (-114 / -108) |
| Day | Time | Wednesday | 3 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Paramount+ |
| Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
Manchester City hosts Borussia Dortmund in a rematch of the 2021 Champions League quarterfinals where the Blacks and Yellows really pushed City across the 180 minutes, but came up short of reaching the semifinals on aggregate. This is also a matchup of Erling Haaland against his former team as the star Norwegian striker transferred from Dortmund to City in the offseason.
Haaland has had a stellar start to his Manchester City career in the Premier League and helped keep City on its perch as the best club team in the world. While no team has been as consistently good as the Cityzens in Europe, the Champions League title has eluded them.
City rolled to a routine 4-0 win at Sevilla and can take a commanding grip on the group with a win at home against Dortmund. The Blacks and Yellows lost 3-0 to RB Leipzig, but the underlying numbers suggest defensive improvement that could help them cope with City's possession dominance on Wednesday.
Manchester City
It's hard to say anything negative about the start of the season for the Cityzens. They've produced 14.3 xG in six league matches (2.06 per match), the most in the PL. The defense has conceded just three expected goals in six matches (0.5 per match), which is also the best in the league.
One argument you could make is that the schedule of opponents has not been particularly strong: West Ham, Newcastle and Crystal Palace represent the toughest competition City has faced.
City has also outrun its xG numbers pretty considerably. Haaland is a great finisher and creator of chances, but he's not going to continue to score nine non-penalty goals for every 6.5 xG he produces going forward. The entire attack is built around him and Kevin de Bruyne and it's always a danger to bet against them.
City's defense is still elite, though, and thus its totals can be inflated. Only Newcastle's pacey wingers and elite transitions caused problems for the Cityzens so far this year. Dortmund teams of the past with Jadon Sancho and Haaland could expose that, but I don't think this Dortmund team will.
Borussia Dortmund
Dortmund made a ton of offseason additions to try to challenge Bayern in Germany after a disappointing campaign that saw them eliminated in the CL group stage. The primary upgrades have come on defense, where they added two solid ball playing center backs in Niklas Sule and Nico Schlotterbeck. For years, Dortmund had a rotating cast of center backs who made too many mistakes at the back that led to conceding chances when pressed.
The attack also over-performed at an unsustainable rate in Germany last season and not all of it was Haaland. Dortmund scored 85 league goals from 62.8 xG last season. Now they've lost Haaland, who was an excellent finisher relative to xG in his young career. The attack is now centered around Anthony Modeste, a 34-year old striker who excelled at Köln, but is not on the level of a Champions League striker, according to his underlying numbers.
Modeste has been an average finisher throughout his career and the losses of Haaland and Sancho appear to be having an impact for the Blacks and Yellows. Modeste has just 0.30 xG per 90 in five 90s this year and is a short-term fix until Sebastian Haller returns from injury.
Karim Adeyemi is the only forward who has put up a truly eye opening performance, but he is unlikely to play for Dortmund on Wednesday. The midfield pairing of Jude Bellingham and Salih Ozcan is more than good enough to compete with Manchester City, but it's hard to see them creating enough clear scoring chances with a front three of Gio Reyna, Marco Reus and Modeste.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Haaland has been on an electric run of goal scoring and that has inflated this total. Meanwhile, Dortmund set out this summer to improve its defense and the results have been pretty encouraging.
Dortmund has really lacked a true attacking identity and the attack has regressed considerably. The attack had been overrated for the better part of two seasons due to its ridiculous rate of finishing off chances.
The elite transitions of past Dortmund teams haven’t shown much without Sancho and Haaland. They’ve averaged less than 1.5 xG per match in Germany and couldn’t generate any chances on the road against RB Leipzig on Saturday. That will be even more difficult against Man City’s elite press and possession system.
City should have no problems controlling the possession and the chances in this match. Dortmund’s midfield and defense is good enough to prevent an onslaught and keep this game under 3.5 goals. My projection has 3.21 goals and I like the under at -120 or better.
The Pick: Under 3.5 (-120 or better)
